At the 2016 Travers Stakes, Arrogate, a soon-to-be star in thoroughbred racing, dominated the competition, winning by 13 ½ lengths and setting a new track record over the classic 10-furlong distance. With odds of 11/1, this marked his fifth race, catapulting him to a future victory against California Chrome in the Breeders Cup Classic. On Saturday, Leading Change showcased similar potential by securing a thrilling win in The Midsummer Derby at historic Saratoga Race Course, despite having even less experience.
Jockey Manny Franco, wielding a left-handed whip, urged Leading Change ahead of the front-runner Napoleon Solo, ultimately winning by half a length. This promising horse is a son of Gun Runner, the 2017 Horse of the Year, and left behind the reigning Preakness winner, Napoleon Solo, alongside Kentucky Derby champion Golden Tempo and other accomplished competitors, all in just his third outing on the racetrack.
Following Arrogate's pattern, Leading Change triumphed at double-digit odds, paying $22.76 on a $2 bet. Trainer Brad Cox, who won the Travers in 2021 with Essential Quality, initially planned to race Leading Change in the fall of his 2-year-old season at Keeneland, but a minor bone bruise caused a postponement, impacting his training schedule.
Now with a flawless 3-for-3 record, Leading Change earned his maiden victory in June with a 6 ½-length win at Churchill Downs. He further impressed Cox and owner Wathnan Racing by clinching the Indiana Derby in July, proving his capability on two turns, which led to his entry into the Travers over Cox’s other horse, Commandment, who had finished second in the Jim Dandy.
“We were very confident going in. And when I say we, I mean Brad's confidence translated to my confidence,” said Case Clay, U.S. racing manager for Wathnan Racing.
In the meantime, Golden Tempo, who won both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes, faced difficulties in the stretch when he was cut off by Napoleon Solo. As a result, Golden Tempo finished third, ending a two-race victory streak. The horse, once a 2/1 favorite in the Travers, is now set to aim for the Breeders Cup Classic, as indicated by trainer Cherie DeVaux.
DeVaux, however, experienced more success earlier with Englishman in the Grade I H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes. With jockey Jose Ortiz aboard, Englishman took an early lead, running the six-furlong distance in an impressive 1:08.4, just three-tenths away from the track record. This electrifying performance earned Englishman a Beyer speed figure of 117, contrasting with Leading Change's Beyer of 103 in the Travers. Having also received a score of 115 in the Woody Stephens Stakes, Englishman marked two of the three-highest Beyer figures this year in the U.S.
“It was another electrifying performance,” DeVaux remarked, expressing her enthusiasm for Englishman's talent. She plans to prepare him further for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.
After the Travers concluded, Sovereignty emerged as the 3/1 favorite in Pool #1 of the Breeders' Cup Classic futures market. Sovereignty, who missed last year's Classic due to a fever, is slightly ahead of defending champion Forever Young and Golden Tempo, positioned at odds of 9/2 and 8/1, respectively. Golden Tempo, despite his defeat, saw his odds drop from 12/1.
“He exited the race in good order; we’ll just keep marching on to the Breeders' Cup,” DeVaux said, adding that Golden Tempo, who has a history of needing favorable conditions, faced interruptions during the race that affected his performance.
Leading Change’s odds stand at 18/1 as trainer Brad Cox remains undecided about his participation in the Classic. Next year, Churchill Downs Inc. alongside the New York Racing Association will introduce the Thoroughbred Championship Series, a six-race event with a total bonus pool of $5 million. A championship race for 3-year-olds will follow the Travers, likely before the Breeders Cup, creating an ideal opportunity for an inexperienced horse like Leading Change as Cox contemplates his future decisions.
Praising the colt's intelligence and calm demeanor during training, Cox likened Leading Change to his sister, Shedaresthedevil, a formidable multiple stakes winner and holder of the 2020 Kentucky Oaks title. Owned by Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Emir of Qatar, Wathnan is a well-known name in global racing stables. Clay recalled a significant conversation from last year’s Keeneland September Yearling Sale where Cox remarked on Leading Change, saying, “This is the type of horse you want.” Wathnan had purchased the yearling for $800,000.
While Cox contemplates whether Leading Change can match up against top older competitors like Forever Young and Sovereignty, he acknowledges the colt's potential. “He’s a Grade I winner and I’m going to enjoy this victory,” Cox stated Saturday evening. “But at some point, there’s zero doubt that he has the potential to be one of the top horses in the country.”
