Nearly a year after the dramatic announcement by then-Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who unveiled a significant increase in remote gaming duty (RGD) in her Autumn Budget, the impacts on the UK gambling landscape are becoming increasingly pronounced. The RGD raised from 21% to 40%, effective April 1, 2023, subsequently reshaping a sector already in flux. Retail outlets are shrinking, several major operators are implementing job cuts, and the largest companies are strategizing to capture greater market share as they adapt to these changes.
As operators prepare for another potential setback with Chancellor John Healey's upcoming Budget, speculation grows that machine games duty will also see an increase. This situation begs the question: how has the UK gambling sector evolved since the RGD hike?
The increases from Reeves’ Budget will affect remote betting, which will see a new duty rate of 25%, up from 15%, taking effect in April 2027. Betting and Gaming Council CEO Grainne Hurst labeled the substantial tax hikes as "excessive", cautioning that they could deliver a "devastating hammer blow" to the industry.
Data from the Gambling Commission indicates that as of March 31, 2026, there were 2,154 licensed gambling operators, marking a 1.1% decline from 2025. This drop continues a downward trend seen every year since 2017, though it’s noted as less severe than in past years. On a more positive note, overall Gross Gambling Yield (GGY) saw an increase of 4.4% to £17.5 billion, with remote casino, betting, and bingo reporting a 6.9% surge in activity.
H2 Gambling Capital's Managing Director Ed Birkin remarked that the full ramifications of the RGD hike have yet to be fully realized, asserting that competitive pressures among operators remain strong despite the increased tax burden. "I don’t think it’s having a material impact yet," Birkin stated regarding the current state of Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR).
However, the reality is evolving. Notably, Flutter, one of the significant players in the UK market, announced a restructuring that may result in up to 1,400 job cuts. Additionally, Evoke closed around 200 William Hill stores, while Betfred revealed intentions to shut as many as 132 locations, affecting over 600 jobs. Bet365 also indicated plans to eliminate approximately 340 positions, illustrating a broader trend of cautious cost management among UK operators.
Fears of further contractions in the regulated sector have arisen in light of these developments. Steve Donoghue, CEO of Gambling Consultant, asserted that Flutter’s layoffs are a precursor to even more widespread reductions in the industry. He believes the heightened tax burden could push customers to unlicensed operators, which would pose increased risks and diminish consumer protections.
Donoghue attributed the drive for higher taxes to a politically charged environment, claiming, "Populist left wing puritanism is resurgent… the industry's inability to counteract this narrative says a lot about their strategy."
In the midst of these challenges, the impact of the RGD hike has disproportionately affected retail gambling. Although the hike was geared towards online operations, the closures indicate that retail is facing the harshest consequences. Between April 2025 and March 2026, the number of gambling premises in Great Britain fell by 2% to 8,081, while retail GGY dropped by 3.3% to £2.4 billion. With the potential for additional store closures imminent, future reports from the Gambling Commission may reveal even greater declines.
The situation could deteriorate further with the anticipated announcement of an increase in machine games duty (MGD), currently set at 20%. A group of Labour MPs has advocated for this increase, alongside larger predictions that it might reach up to 40%.
Industry leaders have voiced their concerns. Jenningsbet's CEO Greg Knight warned in The Times that such a doubling could lead to the closure of "100 shops". Meanwhile, Betfred owner Fred Done expressed dire predictions, stating, "By 2030, we will have no betting shops". Research from the Betting and Gaming Council cited modelling from EY predicting that a MGD rise to 40% could result in the loss of nearly 1,500 betting shops, 34 casinos, and around 16,000 jobs.
While retail gambling grapples with these increasing tax pressures, larger online operators may be in a better position to adapt. Entain's recent Q3 results indicated a 14% rise in online net gaming revenue in the UK and Ireland, signifying strength amidst the turmoil. Entain's CEO Stella David expressed confidence in the company’s strategy to navigate potential duty increases, foreseeing them as an opportunity for market share growth in retail.
Even with Flutter's announced layoffs, their CEO Kevin Harrington asserted the company remains positioned to gain market share as a significant player. Richard Clarke, managing director at Flutter's Paddy Power and Betfair brands, echoed this sentiment, suggesting that their size provides distinct advantages in a tightening market.
As the gambling industry adjusts to the effects of one tax increase, it braces for the implications of another. The outcome of Chancellor Healey's forthcoming Budget will determine the ongoing trajectory and stability of the UK gambling sector.
