Almost a year ago, then-Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced a significant increase in remote gaming duty (RGD) during her Autumn Budget, which would nearly double the rate from 21% to 40%. This change took effect on April 1, 2023, and has since begun to reshape the landscape of the UK gambling industry. The immediate repercussions include a reduction in retail outlets, job cuts among major operators, and the larger players gearing up to snap up market share.
Now, as the new Chancellor, John Healey prepares to present his first Budget this Wednesday, expectations are high for potential increases in machine games duty. This raises questions about further changes in the UK gambling sector following the RGD hike.
The impact of the RGD increase has been substantial. Alongside the RGD rise, the government introduced a new general betting duty for remote betting, raising the rate from 15% to 25%, effective April 2027.
When the RGD increase was announced, Grainne Hurst, CEO of the Betting and Gaming Council, described the tax hike as “excessive” and warned it could serve as a “devastating hammer blow” to the industry. According to data from the Gambling Commission, by March 31, 2026, there were 2,154 licensed gambling operators—down 1.1% from the same time in 2025—but the decline had been a consistent trend since 2017. Notably, the overall market showed resilience, with total gross gambling yield (GGY) up 4.4% to £17.5 billion, while remote betting, casinos, and bingo grew by 6.9%.
Ed Birkin, Managing Director of H2 Gambling Capital, noted that the repercussions of the RGD increase are still unfolding. Operators seem to be competing aggressively for market share despite the tax changes. He stated that the impact on gross gaming revenue (GGR) does not appear significant at present.
However, evidence of cost-cutting measures indicates a tightening in the sector. Last week, Flutter announced a restructuring in the UK and Ireland that could result in up to 1,400 job losses. Evoke closed about 200 William Hill shops earlier this year, and Betfred reported plans to shut down as many as 132 locations, slashing more than 600 jobs. Similarly, Bet365 is cutting around 340 jobs.
The wave of layoffs and store closures has prompted fears of significant downsizing within the regulated market. Steve Donoghue, CEO of Gambling Consultant, warned that Flutter’s job cuts won't be the last, predicting the industry could be “decimated,” leading to potential losses in the thousands. He cautioned that increased taxes could push customers toward unlicensed operators, which poses risks to consumer protection.
Donoghue suggested that the push for higher taxes is politically driven, remarking that current sentiments against the industry reflect broader societal attitudes.
The immediate concern lies primarily in the retail sector. Although the RGD increase was aimed more at online gambling, retailers bear the brunt with closures and declining revenues. Between April 2025 and March 2026, the number of gambling premises in Great Britain fell by 2% to 8,081, and retail GGY dropped 3.3% to £2.4 billion. This trend may worsen following the Chancellor's upcoming Budget.
Ahead of the Budget, Labour MPs have requested an increase in machine games duty (MGD). The current MGD stands at 20%, but speculation suggests it could increase significantly, possibly even doubling.
Warnings from the industry have been stark. Greg Knight, Jenningsbet CEO, predicted that a doubling of MGD might force the closure of 100 shops. Betfred owner Fred Done went further, claiming that by 2030, the retail betting landscape could vanish entirely. According to the Betting and Gaming Council, model predictions indicate that raising MGD to 40% could result in a loss of nearly 1,500 betting shops, 34 casinos, and 16,000 jobs.
The large operators may have the upper hand during these turbulent times. For instance, Entain reported a 14% year-on-year increase in online net gaming revenue in their Q3 results. CEO Stella David expressed confidence that they would emerge relatively unscathed and gain market share in retail despite the MGD increase. Kevin Harrington, Flutter's CEO for UK and Ireland, mentioned that their scale can help them adapt to new tax challenges. Richard Clarke, managing director for Flutter's brands, echoed this sentiment, noting the advantages of being a large organization.
Ed Birkin added that size would play a crucial role in determining which operators thrive in the evolving tax environment, although nimbleness will also be vital. Smaller operators might face disproportionate challenges, accelerating the migration of market share toward larger companies.
As the industry adjusts to the significant tax shock of RGD, all eyes will be on the Chancellor's forthcoming announcements, which could further reshape this already evolving landscape.
