Nevada voters will make their choice in the closely watched gubernatorial race on Tuesday, pitting incumbent Republican Joe Lombardo against Aaron Ford, the Democratic challenger and current state attorney general. The outcome of this race is particularly critical for the state's gaming industry, which is the largest market of its kind in the United States.
As the election date nears, predictions from polls and prediction markets present contrasting pictures. Since the beginning of October, Aaron Ford has gained momentum on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, where his odds of winning have surged above 75%. This marks a dramatic shift, as Joe Lombardo had been favored through much of August and September.
In contrast, some traditional polls, such as those from MS NOW, show a narrow lead for Ford, reporting a 45%-44% advantage over Lombardo as of last Friday. Another poll from Noble Predictive Insights on October 6 indicated a slight edge for Lombardo, showing him with a 42%-40% advantage. Recent election data illustrates a tendency for traditional polls to miss the mark; for instance, they did not anticipate Donald Trump's 2024 victory or the unexpected reelection of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil this month.
Historically, Nevada has been governed by Republicans for the majority of the last 25 years. Republican governors Kenny Guinn, Jim Gibbons, and Brian Sandoval held power for two decades before Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, broke that streak in 2018. Sisolak was governor during the COVID-19 pandemic, during which state casinos were shuttered for a record 78 days in 2020. In 2022, Lombardo defeated Sisolak to become governor.
Funding trends reveal Lombardo as the favored candidate among gaming donors, substantially outpacing his opponent. According to the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office, Lombardo has collected $6.1 million in direct contributions from January 1 to September 30, while spending $12.4 million during the same time. Ford, by comparison, secured $4.9 million in contributions and expended $5.2 million.
Gaming-associated donors have significantly contributed to Lombardo through political action committees, with over $10 million funneled into the Nevada Way PAC alone. Major contributions include:
– $3 million from Station Casinos
– $1 million each from Frank and Lorenzo Fertitta, who are chair and vice chair of Station Casinos
– $1 million from Las Vegas Sands
– Contributions of $350,000 from the South Point Hotel and Casino and $200,000 from Marnell Companies' CEO Anthony Marnell III, along with similar amounts from Boyd Gaming, the Venetian Las Vegas, Caesars Entertainment, Wynn Resorts, and MGM Resorts.
Lombardo is perceived as pro-business. Under his direction, state gaming regulators have begun to dismantle outdated regulations. He has received an endorsement from former President Trump, who actively campaigned for him at a rally in Las Vegas and called for a significant electoral win for Lombardo. At that event, Lombardo positioned himself as someone who must "take care" of Nevada’s gaming powerhouses, drawing sharp criticism from Ford’s campaign, particularly in light of rising costs attributed to economic pressures influenced by Trump’s foreign policies.
Meanwhile, Ford has garnered backing from various labor unions, most notably the Culinary Union Local 226, which has endorsed him and is advocating for unionization efforts at Station’s Red Rock Casino. In a statement on Tuesday, Ford expressed his solidarity with the workers of Red Rock amid this struggle.
One of Ford’s aligned PACs, A More Affordable Nevada, reported receiving $11 million in contributions, including support from Illinois Governor Jay Pritzker. The Forward Nevada PAC, which also backs Ford, received around $3 million in contributions from a diverse set of donors.
Ford’s office has also taken a hard stance against prediction markets, which have stirred controversy in Nevada. The state has seen considerable success in regulating these platforms. Trading on election-related events is banned within Nevada, a ruling recently upheld by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals. While most gaming funding has flowed to Lombardo, a Ford victory could stabilize protections perceived as vital to Nevada’s expansive gaming industry.
In a statement, Ford underscored his commitment to maintaining Nevada's reputation for sound gaming regulation, reiterating, "Nevada has built the gold standard for gaming regulation, and we will not allow companies to circumvent those protections or operate outside the law."
