In the upcoming gubernatorial race in Nevada, scheduled for Tuesday, incumbent Republican Joe Lombardo will face off against Democratic challenger Aaron Ford, the state's current attorney general. This election is particularly significant for the gaming industry, as Nevada is the largest gaming market in the United States.
As the polls close in, traditional polling and prediction markets show diverging trends. Since early October, Ford's odds have surged, with traders on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket now placing his chance of winning at over 75%. Previously, Lombardo had maintained a lead on these prediction markets throughout August and September.
According to a recent poll from MS NOW, Ford has a slight edge with 45% compared to Lombardo's 44% as of last Friday. Meanwhile, a poll from Noble Predictive Insights on October 6 showed Lombardo ahead at 42% versus Ford's 40%. Historical patterns in elections indicate that these polling methods can be misleading, as seen in the surprises of past contests like the 2024 presidential election and the recent reelection of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil.
Since 1998, Nevada has predominantly been governed by Republicans, with Kenny Guinn, Jim Gibbons, and Brian Sandoval leading for two decades until Steve Sisolak interrupted this pattern in 2018. Sisolak's administration faced the challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to the shuttering of state casinos for 78 days. Lombardo, who previously served as Clark County sheriff, defeated Sisolak in 2022 and now confronts Ford, who has a background as a teacher, attorney, and lawmaker, and has served as attorney general since 2019.
Throughout the campaign, Lombardo has garnered significant financial backing, especially from gaming stakeholders. As of September 30, he reported $6.1 million in direct contributions while spending $12.4 million. In contrast, Ford has raised $4.9 million and spent $5.2 million during the same time frame, according to the Nevada Secretary of State's Office.
Lombardo's campaign also benefited from indirect contributions, with over $10 million directed to the Nevada Way PAC from gaming-related donors. Significant donations include:
– $3 million from Station Casinos
– $1 million each from Frank and Lorenzo Fertitta, chair and vice chair of Station Casinos
– $1 million from Las Vegas Sands
– Additional contributions from various other gaming organizations such as Caesars Entertainment and MGM Resorts.
Known for his pro-business stance, Lombardo has had state gaming regulators eliminate outdated regulations at his direction. He has received an endorsement from former President Trump, who joined Lombardo at a Las Vegas rally in August, urging voters to support him decisively. Lombardo emphasized the need to "take care" of gaming investors during his campaign remarks, a point that Ford's team has criticized given the current rise in gas prices in Nevada.
On the other side of the campaign, Ford has aligned himself with union support, particularly from the Culinary Union Local 226, Nevada's paramount hospitality union. In September, the Culinary Union endorsed Ford, who has supported their efforts to unionize employees at Red Rock Casino after the US Supreme Court declined to hear the casino's case on the matter. In a statement, Ford voiced his solidarity with the workers at Red Rock.
Ford's political action committee, A More Affordable Nevada, has amassed $11 million in contributions, including $400,000 from Illinois Governor Jay Pritzker. Contributions to the Forward Nevada PAC also totaled around $3 million, with significant backing from various unions and support organizations.
From a gaming perspective, Ford has led efforts against prediction markets in Nevada, successfully arguing against trading on sports, entertainment, and election-related event contracts. His office's recent victory in a ruling by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals reflects this ongoing commitment. While much of the financial backing is directed toward Lombardo, a Ford win would secure protections for Nevada's gaming industry, which regards itself as facing a serious challenge from these platforms. Ford emphasized the importance of Nevada’s regulatory framework and vowed to continue defending its integrity in the gaming sector.
