On Tuesday, Nevada voters will cast their ballots in the gubernatorial race, where incumbent Republican Joe Lombardo faces off against Democratic challenger Aaron Ford, the state attorney general. As the election nears, the focus on Nevada's gaming industry intensifies.
Recent trends in traditional polls and prediction markets show diverging paths for the candidates. Ford has gained momentum on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket since early October, with his odds rising above 75% in recent weeks. This marks a significant shift from August and September when Lombardo was favored on both sites. Meanwhile, other polls indicate a much tighter race, with MS NOW reporting Ford at 45% and Lombardo at 44% as of Friday. A poll from Noble Predictive Insights on October 6 even suggested Lombardo leading with 42% over Ford's 40%. Historically, traditional polls and prediction markets have misaligned with actual election outcomes, notably during Donald Trump's unexpected victory in 2024 and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s surprising reelection in Brazil.
Since 1998, Nevada has predominantly seen Republican governors. Kenny Guinn, Jim Gibbons, and Brian Sandoval held office for 20 years until Democrat Steve Sisolak's election in 2018. Lombardo, a former Clark County sheriff, succeeded Sisolak in 2022 after navigating the challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic, which resulted in a 78-day casino closure in 2020.
Lombardo has enjoyed strong fundraising support from the gaming industry, receiving $6.1 million in contributions from January 1 to September 30, while spending $12.4 million in the same period. By comparison, Ford raised $4.9 million and spent $5.2 million, according to the Nevada Secretary of State's Office.
Gaming-affiliated donors have directed millions to Lombardo's campaign through political action committees. Notably, the Nevada Way PAC, which supports Lombardo, has secured over $10 million in contributions. Major donors include: $3 million from Station Casinos, $1 million each from Frank and Lorenzo Fertitta, $1 million from Las Vegas Sands, and various other contributions from prominent gaming companies.
Lombardo is viewed as a pro-business candidate, with state gaming regulators removing outdated regulations under his guidance. He has received an endorsement from Trump, who urged his supporters at an August rally in Las Vegas to elect Lombardo by a significant margin. At that rally, Lombardo emphasized his commitment to supporting Nevada’s gaming billionaires, leading to criticism from Ford's campaign in light of rising costs associated with Trump’s policies. Nevada currently ranks as the third-highest state for gas prices, according to AAA. Recently, Lombardo has sought to create distance from Trump to appeal to independent voters.
On the other hand, Ford has garnered backing from labor unions, particularly Culinary Union Local 226, which endorsed him in September. He has shown support for the union’s efforts to unionize at Station's Red Rock Casino, particularly after the U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear a relevant appeal. Ford stated on Tuesday that he stands "in solidarity" with the Red Rock workers.
Ford's political action committee, A More Affordable Nevada, has attracted $11 million in contributions, including $400,000 from Illinois Governor Jay Pritzker. Additionally, the Forward Nevada PAC has received around $3 million in support from various labor unions and donors.
From a gaming perspective, Ford’s office has taken a hard stance against prediction markets, successfully maintaining bans on trading event contracts related to sports, entertainment, and elections. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals recently sided with Nevada in this ongoing battle. While funding has largely favored Lombardo, a victory for Ford could safeguard Nevada’s gaming industry from perceived threats.
"Nevada has built the gold standard for gaming regulation, and we will not allow companies to circumvent those protections or operate outside the law," Ford said in a statement following the recent ruling. "Our office is proud to have defended Nevada’s authority and will continue to protect both Nevadans and the integrity of our gaming industry."
