As the NFL season kicks off, a remarkable milestone has been achieved in the world of U.S. prediction markets. During the first week of the NFL regular season, two leaders in the space, Kalshi and Polymarket, surpassed a staggering $1 billion in combined trading activity. Over the first six days, Kalshi alone recorded an impressive NFL trading volume of $983.4 million, according to DeFi Rate, establishing it as the standout operator. This surge was capped by an electrifying Monday Night Football game where Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs triumphed over the Denver Broncos with a score of 31-10, marking the week as the most successful in prediction market history.
The week’s activity had already shown signs of breaking previous records before the Chiefs' showdown. With this game boosting the totals even further, overall volume reached $15.9 billion, which represents a 16% increase compared to the previous week, as reported by Bank of America.
Kalshi and Polymarket emerged as the dominant players in this record-setting week. Kalshi’s market share declined slightly to 82% as of September 13, down from 86% a week earlier, but it maintained a substantial lead over Polymarket, its closest competitor. In fact, Kalshi overshadowed Polymarket’s numbers by ninefold. Polymarket, for its part, led the pack in app downloads for the week, tallying 762,000 downloads and surpassing competitors such as DraftKings and FanDuel. This marked a remarkable 13,509% increase in downloads, constituting 25% of all category downloads according to Polymarket’s statement.
The overall market saw significant growth following Labor Day weekend, which featured a series of college football matches but lacked NFL games. DraftKings and Underdog reported impressive triple-digit growth rates of 125% and 119%, respectively, while Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Novig saw weekly growths of at least 30%, with Polymarket leading at a 46% increase.
Intriguingly, Kalshi's Sunday trading volume saw only a slight increase of $34 million compared to previous daily totals, which is notable given that Sunday typically sees considerable activity compared to college football Saturdays. Bank of America analyst Shaun Kelley suggested that this anomaly might be due to Kalshi’s potential overemphasis on college sports.
Further complicating Kalshi's situation, improvements at Robinhood could be influencing its numbers. In an unexpected move before the season began, Robinhood purchased a minority stake in Crypto.com and established a deal to direct NFL contracts to its regulated prediction market platform, OG.com. Kelley noted that the 40% increase at Crypto.com, alongside Kalshi's downtrend, could be indicative of the impact of this new partnership.
In addition to football, Crypto.com reported $350 million in trading volume for the week, reflecting a 41% growth, as highlighted by The PM Pulse, a newsletter focused on industry trends. While Kalshi and Polymarket made up a substantial portion of the market with over $15 billion in volume, four other platforms also reported activity exceeding $300 million, with Novig notably gaining nearly 34% in volume due to its recent advertising campaign featuring Sydney Sweeney.
Looking ahead, prediction markets are expected to experience a notable increase in activity during Week 2, which features several high-profile matchups. The Buffalo Bills will open their season at Highmark Stadium against the Detroit Lions, igniting excitement from the local "Bills Mafia" for the debut of the newly built $2.2 billion stadium. New York's status as one of the largest sports betting markets in the nation could also contribute to this boost.
The week will culminate in a highly anticipated Monday Night Football game between the New York Giants and the favored Los Angeles Rams. As of Wednesday afternoon, Kalshi indicated a 75% probability of a Rams victory over the Giants. Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart remarked on the challenge ahead, stating, "It’s going to be a great test for our team."
