Eleven months ago, the UK gambling landscape faced a significant shift when then-Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced a near-doubling of the remote gaming duty (RGD) during her Autumn Budget. By April 1 of this year, the new rates were in place, leading to noticeable changes across the sector. Not only has retail begun to contract, but major operators are also reducing their workforces and strategizing to capture greater market share.
As the new Chancellor, John Healey, prepares to present his first Budget on Wednesday, operators are bracing for potential additional tax burdens, with a hike in machine games duty (MGD) anticipated. This has prompted questions about how the UK gambling sector has evolved since the RGD increase and what future developments may look like.
The RGD was elevated from 21% to 40%, and a new general betting duty rate for remote betting was set at 25%, increasing from 15%, with implementation slated for April 2027. The reaction from industry leaders was swift; Betting and Gaming Council CEO Grainne Hurst called the tax increases "excessive," cautioning that they could serve as a "devastating hammer blow" to the UK market.
Data from the Gambling Commission indicates that, as of March 31, 2026, there were 2,154 licensed gambling operators—a 1.1% decline from the previous year. Historically, operator numbers had decreased each year from 2017 to 2025; however, the recent figure represents an improvement.
Despite some initial fears, the overall situation appears to remain stable, with total gross gambling yield (GGY) rising by 4.4% to £17.5 billion. Remote activities in casino, betting, and bingo sectors saw a 6.9% increase. H2 Gambling Capital Managing Director Ed Birkin remarked that the true impact of the RGD increase may still be forthcoming, noting that operators continue to vie for market dominance even in the face of escalating taxes. "I don’t think it’s having a material impact yet," he stated regarding the effect on gross gaming revenue (GGR).
However, significant moves have already been made. Flutter recently initiated a restructuring plan that could lead to around 1,400 job cuts, while Evoke closed approximately 200 William Hill shops earlier this year. Betfred announced its intention to close up to 132 locations and cut over 600 jobs, and Bet365 is planning to lay off around 340 workers, highlighting the industry's push for cost management.
These job losses and store closures have raised alarms about potential further downturns within the regulated sector. Gambling Consultant CEO Steve Donoghue warned Flutter's layoffs might be just the beginning, predicting a "decimation" of the industry with thousands more jobs at risk. He cautioned that elevated taxes could push customers toward unlicensed gambling operations, consequently increasing consumer risk and reducing protections.
Shop closures have shown that the RGD hike's primary impact, although focused on online gambling, has primarily affected retail. The number of gambling premises in Great Britain dropped by 2% to 8,081 from April 2025 to March 2026, with retail GGY falling by 3.3% to £2.4 billion. This downward trend could worsen with Healey's upcoming Budget.
Ahead of the Budget presentation, some Labour MPs urged an increase in MGD, hinting at possible further tax alterations. Currently at 20%, the MGD is expected to rise, but the extent of this increase remains uncertain. The Social Market Foundation has suggested a doubling of the tax to 40%, although lower increases (as little as 5%) are also possible.
Concerns are prevalent among operators; Jenningsbet CEO Greg Knight warned that a doubling of MGD could result in the closure of 100 shops. Betfred's owner, Fred Done, voiced his fears, asserting that retail betting might become nonviable, predicting an end to betting shops by 2030. The Betting and Gaming Council referenced projections from EY indicating that an MGD rise to 40% could eliminate nearly 1,500 betting shops, 34 casinos, and impact approximately 16,000 jobs.
Despite retail entities facing the brunt of the RGD increase and the anticipated MGD rise, larger operators may have the necessary resilience to weather the shifting tax scenarios. For instance, Entain's latest quarterly figures show a 14% year-on-year increase in online net gaming revenue across the UK and Ireland. CEO Stella David stated that Entain is poised to adapt well to any MGD adjustments and is expected to gain market share in retail. Even amidst Flutter's potential job reductions, UK and Ireland CEO Kevin Harrington expressed confidence in the company's ability to capitalize on future market share gains due to its size and scale.
Richard Clarke, managing director at Flutter's brands, acknowledged the advantages of being a significant player, suggesting that they could leverage cost efficiencies from the impending challenges. Birkin concurred, asserting that operational scale would play a crucial role in determining which companies would come out on top in this evolving landscape, albeit agility in responding to changes may also be vital.
As the sector continues to adjust to the realities of the recent RGD hike, operators will soon learn the extent of the potential impact from the next set of tax changes as the Chancellor delivers his Budget.
