The semifinal match of the World Cup is set for Wednesday as England faces Argentina at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, with kickoff scheduled for 3 p.m. ET, aired live on FOX.
Kalshi has listed England as a -122 favorite to win, while Argentina is considered a +117 underdog, looking for a chance to reach its second consecutive championship game following its victory in the 2022 World Cup.
According to the odds from Kalshi, the predictions for the match include: 37% for England to win in regulation at +170, a 32% chance for Argentina to win at +213, and a 34% probability of a draw at +194. Additionally, there is a 41% likelihood that over 2.5 goals will be scored, priced at +144, and England to win by 1.5 goals has a 16% chance at +525.
The recommended best bet for the match is an OVER on 2.5 goals at +144. Argentina has scored three goals in five out of its six matches during the tournament. England averages 2.16 goals per match but has shown some defensive weaknesses throughout the World Cup. Likewise, Argentina’s defense has also faced challenges.
Lionel Messi stands out as a key player, having netted eight goals, which ties him with France's Kylian Mbappe for the top spot in the Golden Boot race. Mbappe is the -150 favorite to take the award, with Messi listed at +213 by Kalshi. On the other side, Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham have both contributed six goals for England.
Historically, the last encounter between these two teams occurred in a friendly in 2005, where England won 3-2. The rivalry spans over six decades, with notable moments like David Beckham’s red card in 1998 and Diego Maradona’s infamous “Hand of God” goal in 1986.
In World Cup history, England leads 3-2 over Argentina after five meetings. This match will mark Messi’s first appearance against the Three Lions.
Argentina has narrowly made it to this stage after challenging matches against Cape Verde and Egypt. A possible outcome leans towards a high-scoring 3-2 win for England.
For player prop bets, a worthwhile option is Jude Bellingham scoring OVER 0.5 goals at +285. Bellingham has played a crucial role in advancing England to the semifinals, scoring both goals in a 2-1 victory against Norway, marking his second consecutive match with two goals. He also scored twice in the significant win against Mexico at Azteca Stadium.
Interestingly, the last player to score two goals in back-to-back World Cup knockout games was Argentina’s Maradona in 1986, making it plausible for Bellingham to find the net on Wednesday.
