Australia is set to host its first regular season NFL game, drawing an estimated 10,000 American fans to the Melbourne Cricket Ground. This historic matchup will feature the Los Angeles Rams facing off against the San Francisco 49ers, taking place nearly 8,000 miles away from Levi’s Stadium, where these NFC West rivals last met. Despite the sizable American crowd expected for this Thursday night game, they will not be able to engage in live trading on prediction markets from their seats due to local regulations.
The prohibition stems from a ruling by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC), which governs financial services in Australia. Recently, the ASIC underscored its stance that prediction markets operate outside the scope of licensed financial markets in the country. In its guidance, the commission warned consumers to be cautious about using offshore platforms lacking national licensing.
NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, who has been advocating for stricter federal regulations in the US to uphold the integrity of professional sports, expressed his views while in Melbourne. "We think there needs to be stronger regulations into the predictive markets," he explained in an interview. "We want to see that to protect the integrity of our game – we want to make sure we are protecting the consumers that are on those platforms."
Kalshi, a growing prediction market in the United States, has remained quiet about possible international expansion. Some believe Kalshi may postpone such plans until it completes an initial public offering, targeting a valuation of approximately $44 billion. The platform has stringent requirements for new users, including proof of US residency and a tax identification number. It also enforces a comprehensive know-your-customer verification process.
Kalshi’s member agreement, published in June, specifies that users are prohibited from trading on event contracts when residing in about 36 countries, including Australia, due to the ASIC's ruling. The agreement allows Kalshi to deny access to users located in these restricted jurisdictions.
ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland noted in an August statement that individuals who engage with overseas operators might lack the "protections" available to them in Australia. The Australian Communications and Media Authority previously banned the prediction market Polymarket in 2025, citing violations of the Interactive Gaming Act of 2001 regarding in-play betting.
As for the game itself, the Rams were listed with a 64% probability on Kalshi to defeat the 49ers by 3 PM ET. A successful $100 bet on the Rams would yield $150.15. The Rams, having signed Pro Bowl defenders such as Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie during the offseason, are favored to win Super Bowl LXI in February. However, their opening odds of 17% on Kalshi signal a cautious approach; historically, all NFL teams starting a season with futures odds of +500 or lower have not won the Super Bowl in the last 25 seasons, according to Yahoo Sports.
Earlier this year, the NFL had communicated with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, listing event contracts it found objectionable. The league reiterated its concerns regarding betting on player injuries, penalties, and missed field goals. Despite these reservations, Goodell acknowledged ongoing discussions about prediction markets as the regulatory environment evolves.
Meanwhile, Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League have entered into agreements with the CFTC to allow teams to collaborate with operators in this space. Goodell stated, "We don’t think we have to be first in this, we feel like we’re going to be right. The best thing to do is be patient and make sure you keep the integrity of the game number one."
