Australia is set to host its inaugural regular season NFL game, drawing an anticipated crowd of around 10,000 US fans to the Melbourne Cricket Ground. This event features a matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers, taking place 7,971 miles away from the Rams' home at Levi's Stadium, where the teams last faced off.
Despite the excitement, fans in attendance on Thursday night (Friday in Melbourne) will be unable to engage in live trading on prediction markets from their seats. The Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC), the country’s financial services regulator, has declared trading on such markets illegal in Australia. Recently, ASIC issued strong warnings clarifying that prediction markets do not operate as licensed financial markets within the nation's jurisdiction, cautioning consumers to be wary of investing on unlicensed offshore platforms.
NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell believes this advisory aligns with the league’s goal of enhancing the integrity of professional sports. Speaking with CNBC from Melbourne, Goodell emphasized the need for stronger regulations in predictive markets. "We want to see that to protect the integrity of our game – we want to make sure we are protecting the consumers that are on those platforms," he stated.
Kalshi, a rapidly growing prediction market in the US, has remained quiet about possible international expansion. There is speculation that the company might hold off on pursuing opportunities abroad until after completing its initial public offering, which is seeking a valuation of approximately $44 billion. Kalshi mandates strict protocols for its users, requiring proof of US residency and a US tax identification number, alongside a thorough know-your-customer (KYC) process prior to trading.
According to a member agreement released by Kalshi in June, users must acknowledge they are prohibited from trading if they are located in about 36 countries, including Australia. This exclusion is reinforced by Kalshi's right to deny access from restricted jurisdictions.
In August, ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland noted that Australian users engaging with overseas platforms could forfeit protections available under local laws. The Australian Communications and Media Authority also prohibited Polymarket from operating in Australia in 2025, citing violations of the Interactive Gaming Act of 2001 related to in-play betting.
The Rams are currently under considerable pressure as they face the 49ers. At 3 PM ET, Kalshi listed the Rams with a 64% chance of winning, promising a return of $150.15 on a $100 bet if they succeed. The Rams, bolstered by Pro Bowl defenders Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie this offseason, are regarded as front-runners for Super Bowl LXI in February, with Kalshi setting their odds at 17% for the season—a figure that translates to +488 in American odds and is unusually low for a Super Bowl favorite. Historically, teams opening a season with odds below +500 have not been victorious in the Super Bowl for the last 25 seasons, according to Yahoo Sports.
In May, the NFL communicated with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regarding certain event contracts it found objectionable, and by July had reiterated its concerns following draft regulations on the contracts. Among the PIT contracts highlighted were those related to player injuries, penalties, and missed field goals. Goodell acknowledged ongoing discussions about prediction markets as public policy evolves, while other leagues like Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League have signed agreements with the CFTC enabling teams to partner with operators in this space.
"We don’t think we have to be first in this, we feel like we’re going to be right," Goodell remarked. "The best thing to do is be patient and make sure you keep the integrity of the game number one."
