Australia is set to host its first regular season NFL game, with around 10,000 US fans anticipated to attend the clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. This event, featuring the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers, takes place 7,971 miles away from Levi’s Stadium, where the teams last faced each other.
Despite California being a hotbed for prediction markets due to a sports betting ban in the state, attendees at this Thursday night matchup (Friday morning in Melbourne) won’t be able to trade on platforms like Kalshi from their seats. The Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC), which regulates financial services in Australia, enforces that trading on prediction markets is illegal in the country. Recently, ASIC intensified its stance by reaffirming that prediction markets lack licensing to operate in Australia. The commission has advised caution for consumers considering investments on unlicensed offshore platforms.
NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell may view ASIC's warnings as reassuring, as the league has advocated for stricter regulations to maintain the integrity of professional sports. In a recent conversation with CNBC from Melbourne, Goodell emphasized, "We think there needs to be stronger regulations into the predictive markets. We want to see that to protect the integrity of our game – we want to make sure we are protecting the consumers that are on those platforms."
Currently, Kalshi is reticent about expanding internationally. The company may be holding off on any overseas operations until after its initial public offering, aiming for a valuation close to $44 billion. Kalshi's user sign-up process is stringent, requiring proof of US residency and a US tax identification number. Additionally, traders must complete a detailed know-your-customer check prior to any trading activity.
A nine-page member agreement from Kalshi states that users cannot engage in trading on event contracts if they are residents of approximately 36 countries, including Australia, due to ASIC's regulations. The agreement allows Kalshi to deny access to users from restricted jurisdictions.
ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland noted in an August statement that users engaging with offshore operators may lose out on protections provided within Australia. In a related move, the Australian Communications and Media Authority previously banned Polymarket from operating in Australia in 2025, citing violations of the Interactive Gaming Act of 2001 due to in-play betting on sports events.
As of 3 PM ET, the Rams held a 64% probability on Kalshi to defeat the Niners, with a potential $150.15 return on a $100 wager should they win. The Rams, bolstered by Pro Bowl defenders Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie in the offseason, are favored to win Super Bowl LXI in February. They opened the season with a 17% chance on Kalshi's futures market; this translates to +488 in American odds, a relatively low figure for a Super Bowl favorite. Historical patterns show that all previous NFL teams with futures odds of +500 or lower have not won the Super Bowl, according to Yahoo Sports.
In May, the NFL communicated with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regarding certain objectionable event contracts. By July, the NFL reiterated its concerns following the CFTC's draft regulations. Goodell specifically mentioned that contracts concerning player injuries, penalty totals, and missed field goals were among the problematic areas. Nevertheless, he acknowledged that the NFL is discussing prediction markets as the public policy landscape evolves. Other leagues, including Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League, have signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the CFTC, allowing participating teams to collaborate with operators.
"We don’t think we have to be first in this, we feel like we’re going to be right," said Goodell. "The best thing to do is be patient and make sure you keep the integrity of the game number one.",
