Australia is set to host its first regular season NFL game, with about 10,000 US fans expected at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. This matchup is a historic event, pitting the Los Angeles Rams against the San Francisco 49ers, and it takes place 7,971 miles from Levi’s Stadium, where the last encounter between these NFC West rivals occurred. Although both teams are based in California, known for its burgeoning prediction markets, fans attending Thursday night’s game in Melbourne will be unable to engage in live trading from their seats due to local laws.
The Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) has declared that trading on prediction markets is illegal in Australia. Recently, the ASIC issued one of its most stringent warnings against these markets, clarifying that they lack the necessary licensing to operate within the country. The commission advised caution for consumers considering investments on offshore platforms that are not licensed in Australia.
This stance on prediction markets is likely welcomed by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, who has called for stricter regulations on these markets in the US to safeguard the integrity of professional sports. While in Melbourne for the game, Goodell commented to CNBC, "We think there needs to be stronger regulations into the predictive markets. We want to see that to protect the integrity of our game — we want to make sure we are protecting the consumers that are on those platforms."
On the subject of Kalshi, a trading platform that has gained traction in the US, there are currently no hints at international expansion. Some analysts believe that Kalshi might hold off on expanding its reach until after its initial public offering, aiming for a valuation around $44 billion.
Kalshi mandates stringent verification for new accounts, including proof of US residency and possession of a US tax ID number. Users must also undergo a comprehensive know-your-customer process. A nine-page member agreement released in June indicates that individuals residing in approximately three dozen countries, including Australia due to the ASIC's ruling, are prohibited from trading on the platform. Kalshi reserves the right to deny access to users in these jurisdictions.
ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland noted in a statement that users interacting with overseas operators may miss vital protections available on Australian soil. Additionally, in 2025, the Australian Communications and Media Authority banned Polymarket from operating in the country, stating it violated the Interactive Gaming Act of 2001 by allowing in-play betting on sports events.
Regarding the game itself, as of 3 PM ET, the Rams were given a 64% chance by Kalshi to defeat the 49ers. A $100 stake on a Rams victory would yield a payout of $150.15. The Rams, having strengthened their lineup with Pro Bowl defenders Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie during the offseason, are leading favorites to win Super Bowl LXI in February.
Currently, the Rams are the only NFL team to start the season with double-digit odds, rated at 17% in Kalshi's futures market, equivalent to +488 in American odds. This probability is noted as comparatively low for a Super Bowl favorite, with historical trends suggesting that the last 25 NFL teams with futures odds of +500 or better have not clinched the championship.
In May, the NFL communicated with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) expressing concerns about various event contracts it found objectionable. By July, the league reiterated its position publicly, citing contracts related to player injuries, penalties, and missed field goals. Goodell acknowledged that the NFL is engaging in conversations about prediction markets as regulatory conditions evolve.
Other leagues, including Major League Baseball and the NHL, have entered agreements with the CFTC, which allows teams to partner with operators in this space.
"We don't think we have to be first in this; we feel like we're going to be right," Goodell stated, emphasizing that maintaining the integrity of the game remains the highest priority.
