Australia is set to host its inaugural NFL regular season game, attracting about 10,000 US fans to the Melbourne Cricket Ground. This significant event is located 7,971 miles from Levi’s Stadium, where the last clash took place between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers. Both teams, California-based rivals in the NFC West, face a unique situation due to a sports betting ban in a state with over 39 million residents. As such, American fans at the Thursday night game (which will be Friday morning in Melbourne) will not be able to trade on prediction markets from their seats.
This restriction is due to Australian law, specifically a ruling from the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC), which regulates financial services in the country. In a recent warning, ASIC clarified that prediction markets are not licensed to operate in Australia and advised users to exercise caution when investing on overseas platforms that lack proper licensing.
According to NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, this warning aligns with the league's push for more robust regulations in the US to protect professional sports' integrity. Speaking to CNBC from Melbourne, Goodell stated, We think there needs to be stronger regulations into the predictive markets. We want to see that to protect the integrity of our game – we want to make sure we are protecting the consumers that are on those platforms.
Regarding Kalshi, a US-based prediction market that has seen significant growth, there has been little discussion about international expansion. Some speculate that the company wants to wait until its initial public offering is complete. Kalshi is currently valued at approximately $44 billion.
To participate on its platform, Kalshi implements rigorous customer verification processes required for sign-ups, including proof of US residency and a US tax identification number. Additionally, a nine-page user agreement released by Kalshi highlights that residents from about three dozen countries, including Australia due to the ASIC ban, are prohibited from trading event contracts. Kalshi retains the authority to deny platform access to users from restricted jurisdictions.
In a statement, ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland noted that engaging with overseas operators could deprive users of the local protections afforded to them in Australia. Furthermore, the Australian Communications and Media Authority banned Polymarket from operating in the country in 2025 after it reportedly breached the Interactive Gaming Act of 2001 by accepting in-play bets on sports events.
As for the Rams, they are currently under significant press from the public and betting markets. As of 3 PM ET, Kalshi gave the Rams a 64% chance of winning against the 49ers. A $100 wager would yield a return of $150.15 if the Rams prevail. This team has bolstered its roster with Pro Bowl defenders Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie and is viewed as a strong contender for Super Bowl LXI in February.
Kalshi’s futures market indicates the Rams have a 17% chance of winning the Super Bowl, a figure tied to odds of +488. This opening season record positions them uniquely, as historically, the last 25 NFL teams with such low odds at the season's start have failed to secure the Super Bowl.
In May, the NFL communicated with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, voicing concerns about certain event contracts. By July, the league reiterated its stand with public comments concerning the proposed regulations, particularly regarding player injury bets and penalty totals. Despite these issues, Goodell acknowledged that discussions concerning prediction markets are ongoing as public policies continue to adapt.
The NFL's approach allows it to be cautious rather than the first to embrace these markets, with Goodell stating, We don’t think we have to be first in this, we feel like we’re going to be right. The best thing to do is be patient and make sure you keep the integrity of the game number one.
