A draw is uncommon in American sports and rarely attracts bettors in soccer. However, the expanded format of this year’s World Cup has made it the favorite in multiple matches this week. It raises questions of sporting integrity. Are teams going to deliberately play out stalemates to ensure progression to the next round?
In today’s matchup between Paraguay and Australia, the draw is +130 at DraftKings. Paraguay is +185, and Australia is +320. Both teams know that getting a point will be enough to secure their status in the last 32.
Odds Shift as Draw Suits Both Teams
As it became clear that a point would be sufficient to send both through, the chances of a tie went from 28% to 43% at Kalshi.
Prior to that, Paraguay had been favored by the bookies, priced at around +110, roughly a 45% chance at prediction markets.
I have been asking AI tools to make predictions throughout the World Cup, but both ChatGPT and Gemini avoided recommending bets for the Australia vs. Paraguay match. Personally, I think Paraguay’s odds make the team a decent bet, as a victory could secure an easier fixture in the next round.
Expanded Format Make Draws Enough to Progress
This year’s World Cup is bigger than ever before, with 48 teams competing in 12 groups. Last time out, there were 32 teams, and it was a simple case of the top two in each group progressing. This time, eight of the teams that finish in third place will progress to a new last 32 stage.
In Group D, the USA has already secured top spot. Australia is currently in second place, tied on three points with Paraguay, but ahead due to a superior goal difference. Four points will almost certainly be enough to qualify as one of the best third-placed teams.
Opta currently gives Australia a 93% chance of making the next phase and Paraguay an 88% chance. Even a narrow defeat for Australia could be enough to progress, but if Paraguay loses, then they will almost certainly be out.
Group J is similarly placed, with Argentina already assured of finishing on top ahead of Austria and Algeria, who are both on three points. The odds of a draw are now favored at +125 at DraftKings. When the matches were first priced up, the draw was around +230.
A point will also likely be enough to send both Iran and Egypt through in Group G. Iran currently has two points and a neutral goal difference, while Egypt, with five points, is already guaranteed to progress. The Egyptians remain favorites to win at odds of +150. The draw is currently priced at +165.
The odds on a tie could further shorten as other results come in and the requirement for the third-placed team becomes clear. Three points and a goal difference of zero were enough to progress 94.8% of the time in Opta’s simulations.
Austria’s History With Gentleman’s Agreement
In the infamous “Disgrace of Gijón” at the 1982 World Cup, Austria and West Germany went into their final match knowing that a West German victory by one or two goals would send both teams through to the second round while eliminating Algeria.
West Germany scored in the 10th minute through Horst Hrubesch. After that, both sides were widely accused of effectively ceasing to attack and simply playing out the result. Fans in the stadium booed, waved banknotes, and chanted in protest, while commentators around the world criticized the match as a sham.
Following the match, FIFA mandated that final group matches be played at the same time to prevent teams from gaining advance knowledge of the result they required to progress. The addition of the third-placed qualifiers this time out has led to the situation that FIFA wanted to avoid occurring again.
It is interesting that Austria and Algeria, both involved in the 1982 incident, will now face off, knowing that a draw is enough. Algeria lodged an official protest with FIFA after the Austria-West Germany match, and the Algerian media has framed it as a chance for revenge 44 years later.
The value may be in betting against the draw as teams fear being labeled cowards and cheats for playing out stalemates.
