ChatGPT picked another winner at the World Cup yesterday, extending its winning streak to seven. I have been asking it and Gemini to make bet recommendations each day of the tournament to check how effective the tool is as a betting assistant.
After an initial struggle, it appears to have struck a winning formula. I started the experiment on Day 2 of the World Cup. It has largely opted for favorites, and the winning run may be more luck than anything else. Here are its selections so far:
Day 2 Pick: Canada to Defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina (-120) LOST -$10
Day 3 Pick: Scotland Draw No Bet vs. Haiti (-500) WON +$2
Day 4 Pick: Netherlands Draw No Bet vs. Japan (-195) NO BET $0
Day 5 Pick: Iran Draw No Bet vs. New Zealand (-285) NO BET $0
Day 6 Pick: France vs. Senegal Under 3.5 Goals (-270) LOST -$10
Day 7 Pick: Portugal to Win & Over 1.5 Goals (-200) LOST -$10
Day 8 Pick: Switzerland to Beat Bosnia (-180) WON +$5.56
Day 9 Pick: Morocco to beat Scotland (-135) WON +$7.41
Day 10 Pick: Netherlands to beat Sweden (-140) WON +$7.14
Day 11 Pick: Egypt to beat New Zealand (-165) WON +$6.06
Day 12 Pick: Norway to beat Senegal (+120) WON +$12
Day 13 Pick: Croatia to beat Panama & Under 3.5 Goals (+120) WON +$12
Day 14 Pick: Switzerland to beat Canada (+140) WON +$14
Notably, on day 9, it started asking me to send it the latest odds for the day’s matches. I had previously simply asked it to analyze the previous bets and make a new recommendation. After seeing the odds, it has often opted for different bets, deeming there to be little value in an extremely short-priced favorite.
Gemini, meanwhile, continues to struggle. It picked another losing bet yesterday, opting for Morocco to beat Haiti & Under 3.5 Match Goals. In total, it has recommended just three winners out of 13. In a previous experiment, it outperformed ChatGPT by turning a profit on tennis bets.
I have also been making picks, and I am about level for the tournament. As it stands, from $120 staked:
ChatGPT: +$34.17
Gemini: -$71.50
Me: +$2.50
ChatGPT Reflection & New Pick
Day 14 Pick: Switzerland to beat Canada (+140) WON +$14
The logic was:
- Switzerland had already beaten Bosnia.
- Canada had not looked particularly impressive.
- Switzerland’s tournament form appeared stronger than the market’s assessment.
- We only needed Switzerland to win about 41.7% of the time to justify a +140 bet.
Day 15 Pick: Germany to Win & Under 3.5 Goals (+135)
The price definitely gets my attention. The question becomes: Does Germany win a game with 3 or fewer total goals more than 42.6% of the time? I think the answer is plausibly yes. The extra condition is connected to the game script:
- Germany are favorites.
- Ecuador are competent and organized.
- Tight scorelines are more likely than a shootout.
Gemini Reflection & New Pick
Day 14 Pick: Morocco to beat Haiti & Under 3.5 Match Goals (+105) LOST -$10
The bookmakers are trying to choke out standard lines by underpricing heavyweights, and yesterday’s wild 4-2 Morocco shootout proved that when Matchday 3 desperation hits, pre-planned low-scoring scripts get thrown straight out the window.
Day 15 Pick: Japan to beat Sweden (-110)
Sweden enters this final group fixture in absolute structural disarray. While they possess attacking talent, their backline completely dissolved under a high press in their previous match, shipping 5 goals to the Netherlands. Japan is playing some of the most fluid, disciplined transitional football in the tournament, fresh off a clinical 4-0 demolition of Tunisia. Looking at the odds, you have to swallow massive taxes everywhere else. Getting a technically superior, highly in-form Japan side at -110 against a bleeding Swedish defense is an absolute gift from the oddsmakers.
My Reflection & Pick
Day 14 Pick: South Korea to beat South Africa and Under 3.5 Goals (+120) LOST -$10
The low-scoring prediction was correct, but South Africa surprised Korea and me by winning. It was a fairly even game; Korea dominated possession but lacked a cutting edge to make it pay. That can often be the case in soccer, where one goal carries so much meaning.
Day 15 Pick: Paraguay to beat Australia (+185)
The draw is the favorite here, which is almost unheard of in soccer. It’s a consequence of the expanded format, which means both teams can progress if they get a point. There is an incentive for Paraguay to win, however. As it stands, if they win and finish second, they would play Iran. Draw, and they face Germany. That’s a huge difference. If Belgium beat Iran, then they would play the team that finishes second in this group. The Belgians have not looked good so far, though, and I think they are definitely preferable to playing Germany. They also might not beat Iran to take that second spot in their group.
I really feel the odds are overestimating the chance that both teams have some sort of gentleman’s agreement and decide to down tools and take a point. This is the World Cup. Players are eager to perform at their best, and Paraguay is a better team than Australia.
