SOFTSWISS has released its iGaming Trends 2027 report, highlighting ongoing global growth in online gambling, albeit with significant differences in regional operations and regulatory frameworks, particularly influenced by evolving tax structures.
According to the report published this week, which utilized data from H2 Gambling Capital and insights from WorldGaming and tech giants like AWS, global online gambling gross gaming revenue (GGR) is predicted to rise from $349 billion in 2026 to $415.5 billion by 2028. This represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 9% over the two years.
Mobile platforms are expected to drive this growth, with their share of onshore GGR projected to increase from 45% in 2026 to 78% by 2028.
In Europe, which continues to be the largest regulated online gambling market, GGR is anticipated to grow from $85.3 billion in 2026 to $95.2 billion in 2028, reflecting a 6% CAGR. However, the region is grappling with increasing regulatory scrutiny, imposing deeper taxation and product restrictions. Notable regulations include limit-setting across 30 jurisdictions and specific product regulations, such as Germany's restrictions on slot stakes and mandatory five-second spin delays. The UK is also moving towards capping online slot stakes at £5 and £2.
The Netherlands imposes deposit checks of €700 per month for those over 24 and €300 for younger players. The report warns that these tax hikes and restrictions could push customers to unlicensed operators, undermining the competitiveness of regulated platforms. The concept of channelisation is crucial in this context; for example, the Netherlands saw its regulated market share drop below 50% after a tax increase.
In Great Britain, offshore GGR is expected to surge by 110% by 2028, despite increased remote gaming duties. There are concerns that a prospective increase in machine gaming duties in autumn 2026 could negatively impact the UK’s land-based betting industry.
Meanwhile, Central and Eastern Europe emerge as innovation hubs, with operators like Greece’s Betano and Romania’s Super Technologies gaining prominence.
North America is projected as the fastest-growing major market, with online GGR expected to rise from $58.1 billion in 2026 to $76.6 billion by 2028, achieving a 15% CAGR. The US market remains fragmented, with only seven states authorizing full online casinos and 38 states offering sports betting. In 2025, US online GGR jumped by 27.6%, reaching a record $10.74 billion, with Michigan, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania accounting for nearly 90% of that total.
The emergence of prediction markets contrasts with traditional digital-native betting operators, although this landscape faces legal hurdles, including a pending Supreme Court review. Brendan Bussmann, managing partner at B Global, stated, "The US market has and always will be a marathon and not a sprint. It's a different conversation for a host of reasons… until these stakeholders can get a single plan, delays will continue to persist at the legislative level."
In Latin America, the online gambling market is set for steady growth, with GGR expected to rise from $19.7 billion in 2026 to $22.7 billion by 2028, displaying a CAGR of 7%. The introduction of licensed betting in Brazil two years ago significantly improved channelisation, with the regulated market share increasing from 15% in 2022 to 65% in 2026 and predicted to reach 70% in 2028. Before Brazil's recent abrupt closure of its legal online betting sector, it generated federal betting-tax revenues of R$3.397 billion in the first quarter of 2026, marking a year-on-year increase of 123.7%. The report also indicated a surge in unauthorized gambling platforms following the announcement by President Lula of a provisional measure.
Colombia’s introduction of a 19% VAT on deposits in 2025 resulted in a nearly 30% drop in online GGR before its suspension, while Peru's 1% levy on wagers has drawn severe criticism.
In Africa, online GGR is forecast to climb from $13.6 billion in 2026 to $17 billion in 2028, at a CAGR of 12%. Sports betting dominates the segment, but online casinos are quickly growing from a smaller base. South Africa stands out with its interactive gross win projected to surpass $5 billion by 2030. However, a 2025 court ruling that limited fixed-odds casino games has driven much of the gambling activity underground, with around R50 billion moving offshore each year. Significant processing fees pose notable challenges, prompting initiatives like a rand-pegged stablecoin to alleviate payment costs.
Markets with notable growth potential include Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, while Nigeria offers considerable scale but harbors regulatory complexities. Peter Emolemo Kesitilwe, CEO of the African iGaming Alliance, stated, "Africa is increasingly recognised as one of the most dynamic and strategically important regions in global gambling."
In Asia and Oceania, significant demand for online gambling exists despite limited domestic legal frameworks. The region's online GGR is projected to increase from $162.8 billion in 2026 to $193.7 billion in 2028, primarily supported by offshore activities. The UAE recently issued its first licence to operator Momentum, which operates the country’s only licensed iGaming and betting site, Play971.
Oceania is characterized as a mature market, with expected modest growth, as online GGR is forecast to rise from $9.5 billion in 2026 to $10.3 billion by 2028. Australia reportedly has the highest per capita gambling expenditure worldwide.
Other common themes across the regions include tax design and channelisation. Aggressive, complex tax schemes typically emerge early in market development and can swiftly alter player behavior, impacting tax rates. Measurement of wagering retention is crucial for policy formation, particularly as loss of competitiveness may prompt migration to unregulated markets. Gonzalo Perez, CEO of Apuesta Total, expressed concern, stating, "What worries me is that some policymakers still underestimate how quickly players can migrate to the black market if the regulated experience becomes less competitive."
"In iGaming, the real competition isn’t another licensed operator, it’s the unregulated one that pays no taxes and follows no rules."
