Traditional uptime metrics for sportsbooks assess availability over the course of a match, but this approach may not capture crucial betting moments. In contrast, wagering-weighted uptime focuses on whether sportsbooks are accessible during peak wager periods, providing insights deemed commercially significant.
Bettormetrics’ analysis of the US Open demonstrates the value of evaluating sportsbook performance against actual wagering activity. By integrating prediction market data with existing exchange data, Bettormetrics aims to enhance understanding of betting behaviors and operator performance across various sports and markets, particularly in the US.
The limitations of conventional uptime calculations stem from the fact that they typically represent the proportion of match time a sportsbook is live without accounting for the intensity of betting at different stages. This method assumes every part of a match has equal importance, disregarding that wagering volume can fluctuate significantly. For example, if a sportsbook is unavailable during a consequential tie-break, it gets penalized the same way it would for downtime during a quieter first set, despite the stark differences in commercial implications.
Therefore, a sportsbook might report high uptime while it remains inaccessible during crucial moments of increased betting activity. Good uptime numbers alone do not necessarily reflect operator performance when it is most critical.
To compare performance, Bettormetrics analyzed 39 in-play men’s singles matches at the US Open, examining both operator pricing and availability alongside exchange pricing and matched wagering activities from 18 different operators. The analysis considered two metrics: duration, which assesses the share of total match time applicable, and wagering, which represents the proportion of matched wagering that occurred concurrently with those conditions.
This analysis leaned on data from exchanges, emphasizing that exchange wagering differs from sportsbook wagering, so it cannot directly translate to lost revenue reports. However, it offers an independent market-derived view of when betting activity peaks, highlighting significant moments when sportsbook availability matters.
In particular, LeoVegas showed a duration-weighted uptime of 97.8%, positioning it among the higher-performing operators, including Superbet and Paddy Power. Yet, its wagering-weighted uptime lagged at 88.3%, the lowest among the analyzed operators by a wide margin. This 9.5-percentage-point difference highlights how a sportsbook with a strong uptime record can still lack availability during peak betting times.
Notably, during the Zverev vs. Tabilo match, LeoVegas maintained a 98.5% duration uptime but coincided with just 61.5% of the exchange’s wagering activity, showcasing how conventional measurements can be misleading.
Additionally, Pinnacle stood out in the analysis with the tightest average overround in the sample at 3.7%, and its theoretical arbitrage exposure relative to exchange pricing was significantly low. This is atypical; tighter margins usually correlate with higher arbitrage opportunities. DraftKings, with a slightly higher overround of 4.5%, saw its arbitrage load considerably higher at 14.9% by duration.
The standout metrics were notably displayed during the Bet365 and DraftKings engagement with Novak Djokovic. Bet365 was found in theoretical arbitrage for 56.5% of that match’s duration, whilst DraftKings trailed with its own significant arbitrage exposure.
The US Open data reveals the importance of a wagering-weighted perspective in understanding sportsbook performance, as demonstrated by contrasting uptime figures between LeoVegas and Superbet. Bettormetrics is set to expand this methodology to include prediction-market data, which could enhance insights across various sports in the US.
Bettormetrics CEO Sabin Brooks noted, "What the US Open clearly shows is that traditional uptime alone is no longer enough. It tells an operator how often it was available but not whether it was available when it mattered most." As they integrate more complex methodologies, the potential for substantial improvements in how sportsbooks understand and enhance their performance is clear.
