An Israeli Air Force officer was detained in Israel after allegedly engaging in trading on war markets at Polymarket, marking the second arrest related to this case. The news was first reported by the Israeli outlet N12. This incident follows an earlier arrest in February involving another IAF officer and a civilian named Omar Ziv.
In the initial arrest, the officer, who remains unnamed due to security concerns, was accused of leaking classified military information to Ziv, who then used it to place bets on Polymarket. The latest officer's charges do not involve sharing information with others, suggesting he placed bets independently on the platform.
After his February arrest, this officer defended himself in court, asserting that, “everyone in the force” gambles on prediction markets. However, a judge rejected his request for house arrest in May and he continues to be held as the investigation progresses. The court noted that the prevalence of gambling within the military does not mitigate his alleged actions.
The officer arrested in February faces graver charges for allegedly selling military secrets. The judge overseeing his case emphasized the seriousness of their actions, stating, “This is not just a ‘gambling story,’ but a serious treatise of wrongful acts committed out of a pursuit of excitement and lust for financial gain.” The first officer reportedly informed Ziv about a planned military operation against Iran last June, with Ziv then disseminating this information to at least five additional people via WhatsApp, cautioning them to keep this knowledge secret to avoid legal repercussions.
Ziv's activity on Polymarket raised eyebrows as his account accumulated over $160,000 in profits tied to Israeli military endeavors. A notable incident involved the user "ricosuave666," who accurately predicted the date of a strike on Iran and netted $154,000. This user has recently made significant bets regarding a future attack.
Ziv’s indictment revealed attempts to erase incriminating evidence after noticing that his Polymarket account was under scrutiny for possible insider information. Reports indicated that six accounts profited over $1.2 million from wagers placed just before a February military strike on Iran that killed the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during a time when the first officer was already in custody.
Despite these incidents, Polymarket remains active in offering markets related to Israeli military operations. In the United States, trading on wars is outlawed, prompting lawmakers to propose the DEATH BETS Act in March as public concern over this trading practice increased. Nonetheless, Polymarket continues to provide access to these markets, as Israel is among the countries that do not face restrictions on the platform.
This year, the IAF has conducted multiple military strikes, resulting in over $7 million traded on the number of countries that Israel will target and an additional $26 million regarding the duration of the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. There are also markets speculating on strikes in locations such as Beirut and Yemen.
Moreover, an Israeli journalist has reported receiving death threats from Polymarket users for his reporting on Israel's ongoing conflict with Iran. Users accused Emanuel Fabian of exploiting the situation for personal gain through earnings on the markets, with one threat indicating that failure to amend his articles could prompt a group of traders to act against him.
