Uptime metrics for sportsbooks typically measure their availability during the entire duration of a match. However, a more commercially significant approach, termed wagering-weighted uptime, evaluates whether the sportsbook was available during crucial moments of betting activity when stakes are highest.
Bettormetrics conducted an analysis during the US Open, demonstrating how wagering activity provides insight into sportsbook availability during key betting periods. By integrating prediction market data with existing exchange data, Bettormetrics can enhance its performance assessments across various sports and markets, shedding new light on betting behaviors and operator performance in the US.
Traditional uptime metrics often mislead by indicating the total time a sportsbook was operational without accounting for the varying intensity of betting throughout a match. This means an operator might report high uptime even if it was unavailable during moments of heavy wagering. For instance, an operator that is offline for equal amounts of time during a low-action first set and a high-stakes tie-break would receive the same uptime assessment, despite the latter being significantly more important from a commercial perspective.
Bettormetrics' analysis involved comparing operator performance using data from 39 in-play men's singles matches at the US Open across 18 different operators. Their performance was evaluated both by duration — the overall match time the markets were active — and by wagering — which analyzed exchange matched wagering during those active periods. Wagering-weighted uptime represents the percentage of exchange wagering that occurred while an operator's markets were operational.
Importantly, the data used stems from exchange pricing and wagering, which does not directly correlate to a sportsbook's actual earnings. Nonetheless, it acts as an independent, market-derived indicator of when betting was most prevalent, hence highlighting the periods when sportsbook availability is critical. With sound liquidity, the same methodology applies to both prediction markets and traditional betting exchanges.
Analyzing LeoVegas reveals stark contrasts between conventional uptime reporting and its wagering-weighted counterpart. For instance, LeoVegas demonstrated a duration-based uptime of 97.8%, placing it well among competitors like Superbet, Paddy Power, and Hard Rock. Yet, its wagering-weighted uptime dropped to 88.3% — notably the lowest of all sampled operators and a significant 9.5 percentage points lower than its duration uptime. This discrepancy highlights how a sportsbook can appear to have excellent uptime while still missing crucial betting windows.
In a specific match between Zverev and Tabilo, LeoVegas had an impressive 98.5% uptime by duration but only 61.5% during periods of high exchange wagering. This scenario illustrates how uptime figures can obscure the availability issues experienced during peak betting moments.
Further insights come from Pinnacle, which displays a unique situation in terms of pricing and arbitrage exposure. This operator recorded the narrowest average overround at 3.7%, indicative of its competitive pricing strategy. However, its theoretical arbitrage exposure was significantly lower than other operators, showcasing how it can maintain tight margins without bearing excessive arbitrage risks.
Pinnacle’s performance differs from industry norms, as typically tighter pricing correlates with increased arbitrage exposure — as shown by DraftKings, which reported a notably higher arbitrage figure while maintaining a similar overround. Bettormetrics points out that the lower arbitrage load observed at Pinnacle indicates a strategy effectively aligned with pricing adjustments.
In summary, Bettormetrics' findings emphasize the shortcomings of traditional uptime metrics. CEO Sabin Brooks articulated that conventional measures alone do not reveal whether sportsbooks are available during critical wagering activity. By employing a wagering-weighted analysis, significant differences emerge between apparently similar operators, thus offering a more comprehensive view of sportsbook efficiency.
The integration of prediction-market data will extend Bettormetrics' insights beyond tennis and into a broader array of US sports, fostering a more nuanced understanding of sportsbook performance that goes beyond mere availability metrics.
