This week, the realm of prediction markets has been particularly active, featuring developments ranging from the CLARITY Act to a warning from the World Lottery Association, alongside increasing concerns about election betting in Wisconsin.
Among the notable highlights is the upcoming Netflix docuseries, part of its Instadocs series, titled **‘Instadocs: The Prediction Games’**, premiering on July 26. This series will focus on the rapid growth of prediction markets over the past year. It will include interviews with prominent figures such as Michael Selig, Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, and Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket. Commentators, including author Dustin Gouker from The Event Horizon, were also featured. The series promises a glimpse into the world of prediction markets, where millions wager on diverse outcomes, from sports events to pop culture moments.
However, controversy looms over the docuseries. CNN reporter Marshall Cohen criticized the trailer, which suggested that users were trading on the FIFA World Cup final via Kalshi and Polymarket despite existing court orders in Nevada banning such activities. According to Cohen, Kalshi’s representative contended that the trailer was misleading and referred to a trade discussed that occurred in 2025, prior to the court's ruling.
In legislation news, the push against prediction markets became more pronounced as two Nevada Congressmen, Steven Horsford (D-NV) and Mark Amodei (R-NV), introduced a bill to ban event contracts related to sports events after a similar proposal was co-sponsored by Senator Catherine Cortez Masto. Horsford stated, "When it looks like sports betting, it acts like sports betting, and profits from sports betting, then it should follow the same rules as every other sportsbook." He noted that consumers deserve consistent protections under the law.
Meanwhile, a report from CNBC highlighted a significant increase in lobbying efforts from prediction market platforms and the American Gaming Association (AGA) amid a contentious regulatory environment. Both Kalshi and the AGA reportedly spent approximately $1.8 million on lobbying in the first half of the year, marking a substantial rise in their political expenditure as they navigate the evolving regulatory landscape. Kalshi has recently strengthened its government relations team, hiring former Biden administration liaison John Bivona and other seasoned political operatives.
In another development, CME Group's CEO Terry Duffy expressed hesitation regarding their partnership with FanDuel concerning prediction markets centered on sports. During an earnings call, he emphasized a desire to separate sports from their offerings, warning of potential manipulations linked to such contracts. CME Group's representatives have clarified that their focus remains on contracts adhering to the guidelines from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which expressed that while sports contracts might be acceptable, there are specific instances that could raise integrity concerns.
Polymarket, on the other hand, made headlines this week after registering with the CFTC to self-certify several new type of contracts allowing users to bet on events like individual arrests and disease counts. This move reflects the ongoing debate about the ethical implications of trading on personal legal situations, with reactions on social media indicating mixed feelings about such developments.
Finally, the AGA has sought to intervene in the legal battles between the CFTC and New York, echoing a similar stance taken regarding Wisconsin’s state-level regulations. In this instance, the AGA aims to support New York against federal accusations which claim to favor large corporations over consumer interests. The tension escalated when a federal judge denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction related to state restrictions, prompting an immediate appeal by the company as it continues to contest the New York Gaming Commission’s cease-and-desist order.
