Brazil, the largest iGaming market by user demand globally, is experiencing significant shifts in its market dynamics following the introduction of a ban. According to data from Blask, which tracks 142 countries, Brazil's regulated iGaming market began in January 2025, capturing over 96% of user interest until recently. Approximately four days post-ban announcement, the share of offshore brands nearly reached 10%. Meanwhile, the affiliate promotion of top brands saw a decline of 41.5% within a week.
Prior to the ban, from the launch of the regulated market on January 1, 2025, until September 24, 2026, offshore brands contributed just 3.9% to Brazil's iGaming demand, averaging a share of 3.4% the day before the ban took effect. Following the ban's publication, there was an uptick in offshore brand share, escalating daily and culminating in a peak of 9.9% by September 29, marking the highest daily share since the market's inception.
Ricardo Bianco Rosada, the founder of brmkt.co and a gaming industry veteran, anticipates that players will gravitate towards illegal options once licensed platforms cease operations on October 6. He emphasized that the illegal market remained active during the presence of licensed sites, coexisting for the past two years. Rosada remarked, "The ban does not create that market. It hands it the other 30 million customers, the ones who until now were betting on sites that could see them."
The ban also extends to affiliate marketing and advertising, resulting in the effective dissolution of Brazil's regulated betting affiliate sector along with the licensed operators. By September 29, the top 20 promoted brands collectively lost significant affiliate representation, with coverage dropping from 715 to 418 websites. This represents a 41.5% decline affecting all brands within this group.
Bet365, which was the leading brand in August, suffered the most drastic cuts, with its coverage slashing from 60 to 31 affiliate sites. Other brands, like Brazino777, Novibet, and Sportingbet, also lost exposure. In contrast, Stake, which became the most promoted brand during this period, experienced its own decline from 51 to 38 affiliate sites. Betano, leading in user demand in Brazil, was reduced to just 33 affiliated sites, down by 15.
Luiz Felippe Correia de Almeida, CEO of Smart Social, noted that the ban prohibits affiliate links, sponsored content, and betting bonus codes, regardless of payment structures. He stated that affiliates who focus solely on the Brazilian market are in a particularly precarious position. His perspective suggests that diversifying to other geographical markets may be essential, as affiliates that continue to engage Brazilian customers through alternative means risk fines up to 10% of their overall revenue.
In summary, just four days after the ban, offshore brands' share of Brazil's iGaming market surged to 9.9%, nearly tripling. Concurrently, affiliate coverage amongst the leading promoted brands dropped by 41.5% in a single week, signaling a contraction in the regulated market while withdrawals are still possible from licensed sites.
