As Super Bowl 60 approaches in February, NFL Executive Vice President Jeff Miller has shown a slight openness to the idea of sports event contracts, though he stops short of embracing them fully. In a recent discussion with Front Office Sports, Miller called the asset class "innovative" but highlighted the necessity for clearer regulations before any definitive steps are taken. In a previous statement last December to the US House Committee on Agriculture, he expressed that the league was "particularly troubled" by the fact that some contracts operated outside state regulatory authority and the associated protections for the industry.
This week, the NFL submitted a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as the public comment period on proposed regulations for sports-event contracts drew to a close on July 27. A comprehensive 267-page draft rule released by the CFTC in June aims to establish guidelines for evaluating whether these contracts engage in illegal activities or contradict public interest.
While the NFL acknowledged that the draft contains some positive elements, it voiced that the rules “significantly fall short” of ensuring the integrity of sports and protecting fans involved in these markets. The league has also called for an outright ban on certain contracts like micro-bets, player props, and award markets that it believes could be manipulated by individual players. Additionally, the NFL urged the CFTC to toughen the rules against insider trading and to create a registry for individuals prohibited from betting on league activities.
"It is surprising that more common-sense integrity and consumer protection measures from our previous correspondence were not included," wrote the NFL.
Together with the NBA and NCAA, the NFL is pushing the CFTC to establish a minimum trading age of 21 for these contracts in light of insider trading incidents that have arisen in the past year.
In a significant development within New York, the New York Mets made headlines by partnering with prediction market operator Novig. This deal, announced on Thursday, marks the first time a Major League Baseball franchise has entered into a partnership with a prediction market exchange.
This agreement follows the signing of a groundbreaking Memorandum of Understanding between the CFTC and MLB in April, aimed at ensuring the integrity of prediction markets related to baseball. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig indicated that this collaboration seeks to protect these markets from risks such as fraud and manipulation and commended MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred’s proactive stance in preserving market integrity.
American University professor Matt Bakowicz noted that prediction markets are garnering increased interest as they blend finance, gaming, and fan engagement, making them appealing to sports teams while also attracting regulatory scrutiny.
The Mets welcomed their new partnership a day before New York Governor Kathy Hochul and state Attorney General Letitia James filed a substantial lawsuit against Kalshi, demanding $36 billion in damages as part of the state’s ongoing challenge against prediction markets.
Metropolitan Park, which secured a casino license in downstate New York, has faced construction delays on its $8.1 billion project, a collaboration between Mets owner Steve Cohen and Hard Rock International. This venue is set to include approximately 286,000 square feet of gaming space and an 18,000-square-foot retail sportsbook. The relationship between Cohen and Hochul has led some to question whether the partnership with Novig represents a strategic hedge for the Mets.
Bakowicz commented that he does not perceive Cohen's actions as contradictory but rather as a multifaceted approach to business, navigating different regulatory frameworks.
The Mets are currently struggling, sitting with a 47-63 record, which places them second to last in the National League. Their total projected wins for the season by Novig stands at 69.5. Historically, the franchise has only failed to achieve 70 wins on two occasions since 1996, with disappointing 66 wins in 2003 and 26–34 in the shortened 2020 season. The probability of the Mets making the playoffs, as suggested on Kalshi, is at 4%, a line not offered by Novig.
In a broader context, Attorney General James has had a contentious relationship with former President Donald Trump since taking office in January 2019. She led a lengthy investigation into claims of asset inflation by the Trump Organization, which resulted in fines exceeding $400 million. While a New York appellate court affirmed Trump's liability, it ultimately deemed the penalties excessive. Trump has vehemently denied the allegations, labeling the lawsuit as a politically driven attack.
James has also faced challenges in her legal actions; in October 2025, a federal grand jury indicted her on bank fraud, though a Virginia judge later dismissed the case, stating it was politically motivated. Notably, Donald Trump Jr. is on the board of both Kalshi and Polymarket. In a recent Netflix documentary released on July 26, Selig defended himself against conflict of interest claims regarding Trump's family, taking the opportunity to criticize James and the state of New York.
“Rather than pursue reasonable resolutions through the courts, James and New York are attempting an unprecedented nationwide shutdown of prediction markets," Selig stated in an X post. “The CFTC has moved to prevent this and will uphold its jurisdiction.”
The lawsuit filed by Hochul and James claims that Kalshi’s markets qualify as gambling due to their uncertain outcomes, which are not controlled by participants. By operating without a New York license, Kalshi has allegedly avoided tax obligations traditionally imposed on licensed casinos and sportsbooks, with significant tax revenue implications noted by the attorney general.
Since the inception of mobile sports betting in 2022, New York has generated around $3.5 billion in tax revenue and led the nation with a $26.3 billion sports betting handle last year, significantly outpacing Illinois. Current estimates suggest the emergence of sports-event contracts has resulted in a loss of over $1.2 billion in tax revenues for states across the US.
In another legal twist, a federal judge in Minnesota recently granted a preliminary injunction preventing the state from enforcing the first nationwide ban on prediction markets, which was set to start on August 1. US District Court Judge Kate Menendez ruled in favor of Kalshi and Polymarket based on federal law overriding Minnesota statutes concerning certain event contracts. Kalshi's representative, Elisabeth Diana, acknowledged this ruling as significant regarding state jurisdiction.
Conversely, a judge in Wisconsin has allowed the state to resume enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi and four other prediction markets, clearly highlighting the varying approaches different states are taking towards regulation. Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul previously expressed a preference for shutting down these markets rather than pursuing financial damages.
