Peter Jackson, the CEO of Flutter, is preparing to leave his position in late September, signaling a significant leadership change at the world's largest online gambling company. This transition will see Flutter start the 2026-27 NBA season without two of its key executives from the previous year.
During a recent earnings call, Jackson confirmed his resignation after nine years at the helm, hinting at the pressures sportsbooks face amid the rapid growth of prediction markets. His departure follows closely behind that of former FanDuel CEO Amy Howe, marking a stark contrast to the previous year’s landscape where FanDuel dominated sports betting.
Despite offering sports event contracts through FanDuel Predicts, Flutter has lagged behind other companies with in-house market-making exchanges. Recent estimates suggest that the U.S. prediction markets experienced around $50 billion in trading volume spurred by the 2022 World Cup, with Kalshi commanding about 83% of the market share in June while FanDuel Predicts struggled to keep pace.
As Dan Taylor steps into Jackson's role on October 1, he faces substantial challenges, especially after Flutter slashed its full-year US adjusted EBITDA guidance by 22% due to unpredictability in revenue from prediction markets. In the second quarter, Flutter reported $6 million in revenue from this segment, projecting a total of $50 million for the year while anticipating category expenses exceeding $200 million.
Taylor expressed enthusiasm for leading Flutter through continued innovation and growth.
Additionally, Flutter announced that FanDuel Predicts will transition all of its sports and novelty contracts from CME Group Inc. to Crypto.com. Despite this shift, CME Group will retain a 51% stake in FanDuel Predicts, allowing ongoing access to financial derivatives for customers. Jackson suggested that Flutter should be cautious in launching its own market-making exchange, advising careful consideration of market complexities.
Amid these executive changes, Michael Burry, a hedge fund manager famous for his role in “The Big Short,” disclosed via his Substack that he has more than doubled his investment in Flutter, purchasing shares at an average price of $90. Following a roughly 10% drop due to Flutter’s disappointing guidance, the stock hit an intraday low of $89.71 but rallied to close at $94.46, up 1.6%. Burry attributed the decline in sports betting stock prices to the burgeoning activity in prediction markets.
In a research note, Joe Stauff from Susquehanna International Group indicated that Flutter's challenges reflect skepticism regarding customer retention, heightened competition in sports betting this fall, and a possible lag of about nine to twelve months in FanDuel's prediction market offerings compared to DraftKings.
Despite these hurdles, Flutter's international revenues rose 10% year-over-year, supported by a strong performance in Italy. In markets where Betfair Exchange operates alongside other sportsbooks, Flutter has observed a modest market share, according to Jackson. Stauff emphasized the potential for Flutter to correct its course, noting a 30% increase in average monthly players in June, a vital metric in the industry.
He pointed out that Jackson’s exit signals Flutter’s acknowledgment of FanDuel's missteps, and the immediate leadership change combined with ongoing international opportunities reinforces a positive outlook, even as he adjusted his price target for shares from $121 to $115.
Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon also revised his target downward, from $190 to $160, reflecting updated estimates and a lowered valuation multiple. Beynon praised Flutter’s strategic acquisitions, asserting that the company possesses a diverse portfolio of leading brands, making it uniquely positioned to capitalize on global trends in online gambling.
Thursday marked an important earnings report day for the top four U.S. sportsbooks, including FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and Caesars. DraftKings maintained its revenue guidance for the fiscal year 2026 at between $6.5 billion and $6.9 billion. For the first time, DraftKings defined its quarterly sports revenue to include online and retail sportsbook earnings along with prediction markets, reporting $1.99 billion for the three months ending May 31, a 5.7% increase from the previous year. CEO Jason Robins stated that the predictions segment is exceeding growth expectations, fueling confidence in their strategy for the upcoming NFL season.
As of late Thursday, DraftKings shares traded around $22, reflecting a 1.4% decline after hours. DraftKings has faced a 35% drop in stock value year-to-date, but Flutter's struggles are more pronounced, having lost over 65% since its record closing price of $308.60 on August 28, 2025, now resting with a market capitalization significantly reduced to just above $16 billion.
The dynamics of the prediction markets and Flutter's leadership transition set the stage for critical shifts in the competitive landscape of online gambling.
