In a stunning upset at the 2023 Travers Stakes, Leading Change demonstrated his potential by overcoming seasoned competitors to win The Midsummer Derby at Saratoga Race Course. The race marked just the third career start for Leading Change, who sprinted past predominately front-running Napoleon Solo and crossed the finish line half a length ahead, under the guidance of jockey Manny Franco. This victory is particularly significant considering Leading Change is a son of Gun Runner, the 2017 Horse of the Year, and also defeated the Kentucky Derby winner, Golden Tempo, along with multiple other stakes winners.
The win came with a 22.76 return on a $2 bet as Leading Change, like Arrogate before him, triumphed at double-digit odds. Trainer Brad Cox, who previously won the Travers with Essential Quality in 2021, had high hopes for Leading Change but had to postpone plans for a fall race at Keeneland last year due to a minor bone bruise that delayed his development.
Now boasting a perfect 3-for-3 record, Leading Change made his debut in June with a 6 ½-length victory at Churchill Downs. He followed this up with a narrow win in July’s Indiana Derby, proving to both Cox and Wathnan Racing's Case Clay that he could handle the additional demands of running two turns. Confident in Leading Change's abilities, Cox decided to enter him in the Travers over Commandment, another of his trainees.
Clay expressed confidence in Leading Change’s ability, saying, "We were very confident going in. And when I say we, I mean Brad’s confidence translated to my confidence."
Golden Tempo, the betting favorite at 2/1 and winner of both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, faced challenges during the race when Napoleon Solo obstructed his path, resulting in a third-place finish and ending his two-race winning streak. Despite the loss, trainer Cherie DeVaux indicated plans to redirect Golden Tempo towards the Breeders Cup Classic.
On the Travers undercard, Englishman showcased an electric performance, winning the Grade I H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes. Jockey Jose Ortiz guided him to an impressive early lead, and Englishman finished the race in 1:20.71, just three-tenths shy of the track record for seven furlongs. His exceptional time guaranteed him a Beyer speed figure of 117, making it one of the highest recorded this year.
After the Travers, the Breeders Cup futures market saw Sovereignty emerge as the 3/1 favorite in Pool #1 of the Classic futures. Following a successful win at the Grade I Whitney, Sovereignty is set to return to the Classic after missing the previous year due to health issues. His odds surpassed those of defending champion Forever Young and Golden Tempo.
Despite Leading Change's triumphant win, trainer Brad Cox is not yet certain about entering him in the Classic against top contenders like Forever Young and Sovereignty. Next year is set to see the launch of the Thoroughbred Championship Series, which will include a championship race for 3-year-olds before the Breeders Cup. This could provide an ideal setting for the inexperienced Leading Change.
Cox praised Leading Change's intelligence and calm demeanor during training, noting similarities to his half-sister, Shedaresthedevil, a notable winner of the 2020 Kentucky Oaks. Leading Change was purchased for $800,000 at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale by Wathnan Racing, owned by Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani of Qatar, a revered figure in the racing community. Although Cox currently weighs his options for Leading Change’s future races, he acknowledges the colt's potential for greatness, stating, "He’s a Grade I winner and I’m going to enjoy this victory, but there’s zero doubt that down the line, he has the potential to be one of the top horses in the country."
