Steve Kornacki, NBC News' chief data analyst, faced a hectic schedule this week. After covering a surprising gubernatorial primary in Wisconsin late into the night, he flew to upstate New York to deliver a keynote speech at The Racing and Gaming Conference in Saratoga at 9 a.m. Wednesday. Despite having just a few hours of sleep, Kornacki presented a compelling address addressing critical issues like ownership concentration in racing, declining foal populations, and diminishing TV ratings for the Triple Crown events.
Kornacki highlighted significant drops in annual wagering in the U.S., noting that the total handle declined from around $15 billion in 2003 to approximately $11.8 billion last year. Non-Triple Crown event viewership is also falling. He referenced the viewership numbers for last year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships, which had a purse of $34 million over its two days. The first Breeders’ Cup in 1984 attracted an estimated 4.3 million viewers, but by last year, that number had fallen to below 1 million on the second day.
The decline in racing viewership, Kornacki suggested, might be linked to the growing popularity of college football. The data showed that at least eight college football games during that period achieved higher ratings, including a match between Oregon State and Washington State, two teams which finished the season with a 9-16 record.
While Kornacki did not offer a concrete solution to the Breeders’ Cup’s audience woes, he mentioned potential strategies like rescheduling the event to dates with fewer college football matches. Traditionally, the only game on the second Saturday of December is the Army-Navy game, following the conference title games. Another option would be to hold the Breeders’ Cup during midweek when both the NFL and most college football programs are off.
In contrast to falling viewer numbers in other races, the Triple Crown has managed to hold its ground, evidenced by the record ratings for the Kentucky Derby in May, which peaked at 24.4 million viewers. Kornacki pointed out that while three Derby participants did not compete in the Preakness, it still attracted 6 million viewers, albeit described as having “low-wattage” ratings.
Additionally, Maryland Governor Wes Moore has announced that the Preakness will move back eight days in 2027, aimed at attracting more entrants from the Kentucky Derby. The newly established Thoroughbred Championship Series includes the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes but excludes the Preakness. Neither Kornacki nor NYRA executive Andrew Offerman discussed the series during the conference.
Kornacki suggested that expanding wagering options could draw more Millennials to racetracks. On August 1, trainer Todd Pletcher won five races at Saratoga, culminating in Renegade’s victory in the Jim Dandy. However, currently, parimutuel tracks do not allow wagers on such trainer performances. Kornacki equated these appeals to popular prop bets in other sports, stating, "If you can create that, you can get the same bettor."
During the conference, New York Attorney General Letitia James’ recent lawsuit against Kalshi sparked considerable discussion. James and Governor Kathy Hochul announced a $36 billion lawsuit on July 31, accusing Kalshi of conducting illegal gambling in New York. They argue that Kalshi’s event contracts qualify as “gambling” under state law due to uncertain outcomes.
Two New York officials spoke on the matter at the conference. Carrie Woerner, chair of the New York State Assembly Committee on Racing and Wagering, stated that states must enforce their rights in regulating prediction markets. Several states are engaged in legal battles with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over regulatory jurisdiction regarding these markets. An August 11 CFTC statement indicated Kalshi must continue operations in New York under the Commodity Exchange Act.
Previously, Senator Joseph Addabbo expressed potential interest in regulating and taxing prediction market operators, but it remains unclear if his stance has changed in light of the lawsuit.
New York State Gaming Commission Chair Brian O’Dwyer praised James’ lawsuit during his remarks at the conference Wednesday. He highlighted the significance of this case as Kalshi seeks a valuation of $44 billion, while competing prediction market Polymarket is chasing outside financing with a projected value of $20 billion. O’Dwyer commended Hochul’s efforts to combat underage betting, noting that most prediction markets permit betting from ages 18 and older. He anticipates that the Supreme Court will eventually review the matter involving sports event contracts, believing states will prevail.
O’Dwyer commented on the risk of underage bettors turning to predictions after illegal sportsbooks targeted them prior to the enactment of PASPA: "The answer is not in replacing criminal thuggery with corporate avarice and greed."
Another topic of concern at the conference was a betting investigation launched by the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority. Recently, a set of horses shipped from Fair Hill Training Facility in Maryland won four races across northeastern tracks, including Saratoga. Many of these horses, which had not raced in some time, carried steep odds in their successful outings.
This incident has connections to trainer Angel Quiroz, who was involved with some of the winning horses. He trained The Great Amira and Tepeyac, both victors at Monmouth Park. Quiroz has faced scrutiny after two horses, Classic Rock and M Bs Melanie Cares, also won on the same day. Reports indicated that several UK bookmakers faced significant losses on wagers involving these underdog horses, with initial liabilities estimated between £600,000 and £800,000.
Pat Cummings, executive director of the National Thoroughbred Alliance, brought this case to light during a panel at the Saratoga conference, noting that feedback appeared to disproportionately come from UK bookies rather than from the U.S. betting community. Quiroz, however, minimized the allegations, asserting that winning races is part of his responsibility as a trainer. "Everybody is shocked. I don’t see what the big deal is. I’m supposed to run all the time and not try to win the race?" he told Thoroughbred Daily News.
