At the 2016 Travers Stakes, Arrogate made a stunning impression by dominating the competition, winning by an impressive 13 ½ lengths while establishing a new track record for the 10-furlong distance. Notably listed at odds of 11/1, this victory marked Arrogate’s fifth career start and set him on a path toward an electrifying win against California Chrome at the ensuing Breeders Cup Classic. Over the weekend, a rising horse named Leading Change demonstrated a similar potential by capturing The Midsummer Derby at the historic Saratoga Race Course.
Under the direction of jockey Manny Franco, Leading Change surged past the leader Napoleon Solo to secure a victory by half a length. The horse, a progeny of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner, outperformed notable competitors, including Kentucky Derby champion Golden Tempo and several stakes winners, all in just his third race.
Leading Change also went off as an underdog with double-digit odds, paying out $22.76 for a $2 bet. His trainer, Brad Cox, who had previously claimed victory in the Travers with Essential Quality in 2021, had originally intended for Leading Change to compete last fall at Keeneland as a 2-year-old. However, a minor bone bruise resulted in a scratch, hampering his development.
Now boasting a perfect record of 3-for-3, Leading Change broke his maiden in June with a commanding 6 ½-length victory at Churchill Downs and marked his return with a narrow win in the Indiana Derby in July. This prompted Cox and Wathnan Racing, represented by Case Clay, to enter Leading Change in the Travers instead of Commandment, another of Cox's trainees who had placed second in the Jim Dandy.
"We were very confident going in. And when I say we, I mean Brad's confidence translated to my confidence," Clay remarked, underscoring the team's assurance.
Golden Tempo, the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes champion, faced challenges finding space coming down the stretch as Napoleon Solo blocked his path. His third-place finish ended a two-race winning streak, but trainer Cherie DeVaux is preparing Golden Tempo for the Breeders Cup Classic, despite the horse now being the 2/1 favorite in the Travers.
DeVaux had more success on the Travers undercard with Englishman, who showcased a remarkable performance in the Grade I H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes. After taking an early two-length lead, Englishman maintained an incredible pace, finishing six furlongs in a swift 1:08.4 under jockey Jose Ortiz. He crossed the finish line in 1:20.71, just three-tenths off the track record. Englishman's performance earned him a Beyer speed figure of 117, notable in comparison to Leading Change's Beyer of 103 in the Travers. This season, Englishman achieved two of the three highest Beyer figures recorded on U.S. soil.
"It was another electrifying performance," DeVaux stated, expressing her admiration for Englishman. She plans to prepare him for the Breeders' Cup Sprint, where Knightsbridge's Beyer of 122 remains the season's best.
In the aftermath of the Travers, Sovereignty emerged as the 3/1 favorite following Pool #1 of the Breeders' Cup Classic futures market. Sovereignty had missed last year's Classic due to a fever. He now ranks ahead of defending champion Forever Young at 9/2 and Golden Tempo at 8/1, with Golden Tempo's odds slipping from 12/1.
"He exited the race in good order; we’ll keep marching on to the Breeders' Cup," DeVaux noted. "He ran a better race than he’s been running. Golden Tempo needs things to go well and unfortunately got stuck on the inside where he was halted several times."
As for Leading Change, he currently holds 18/1 odds, fair considering Cox has yet to confirm if he will race. Looking ahead, Churchill Downs Inc. and the New York Racing Association plan to launch the Thoroughbred Championship Series, featuring six races that culminate in a $5 million bonus pool. This series aims to benefit younger horses like Leading Change, while Cox evaluates future options. He praised Leading Change’s intelligence and calm demeanor in training, likening him to Shedaresthedevil, a multiple stakes winner and 2020 Kentucky Oaks champion.
Owned by Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Emir of Qatar, Wathnan Racing stands out as one of the premier racing stables globally. Clay reminisced about a pivotal conversation with Cox during the 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, where the trainer emphasized, "this is the type of horse you want," which led Wathnan to purchase Leading Change for $800,000.
While Cox remains uncertain about Leading Change's prospects against seasoned competitors like Forever Young and Sovereignty, he recognizes the horse's potential. "He’s a Grade I winner and I’m going to enjoy this victory. But there’s no doubt he could become one of the top horses in the country in the future," remarked Cox, illustrating his cautious yet optimistic outlook for Leading Change’s career trajectory.
