Australia has issued a warning to consumers regarding the use of offshore prediction markets, emphasizing the lack of legal protections that accompany regulated products. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has revised its MoneySmart guide amidst a growing number of Australians engaging with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland highlighted the risks associated with foreign prediction markets. He noted that Australians participating in these markets are transacting with businesses that fall outside the reach of local regulations, thus missing out on the safety measures provided to users of regulated Australian products.
Kirkland remarked, "Whatever the legal definition of a prediction market, let’s just focus on the substance and in all practical terms, it is akin to gambling." He emphasized that prediction market operations are frequently considered gambling, despite their appearance as financial instruments.
The ASIC has acknowledged its limited understanding of the full extent of the issue, suggesting that it may be underestimating the situation. Enforcement challenges on international websites also complicate the ability to address potential regulatory violations. Kirkland referenced a notable incident involving a soldier accused of betting on the potential ousting of the Venezuelan president while involved in operations related to that political issue.
In response to the increasing concerns about prediction markets, Australia has already taken action. In August 2025, the Australian Communications and Media Authority directed internet service providers to block access to Polymarket after concluding that it was offering unlicensed gambling services in violation of the Interactive Gambling Act.
