This week saw limited developments in the realm of prediction markets, highlighted by a significant ruling from the Ninth Circuit Court, which decided 3-0 against Kalshi on Friday. In addition, a Michigan judge mandated Kalshi to cease its operations in the state and geoblock access. Adding to these developments, New Jersey has officially appealed to the Supreme Court regarding the legality of contracts tied to sports events.
In the backdrop of these headlines, there were notable advancements in prediction markets.
Reportedly, the NBA is preparing to announce deals related to prediction markets as the new season approaches. Front Office Sports indicated that while leagues like the NFL have already partnered with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, the NBA has withheld from such partnerships until now. However, sources mentioned that “deal terms are on the table,” considering various companies including Fanatics, Novig, and the joint venture of Robinhood and Susquehanna known as Rothera. Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, suggested that announcements from one of the two major leagues—NBA or NFL—are imminent, albeit the NFL recently confirmed its official sports betting and casino partnerships for the 2026 season without making any strides towards prediction market collaborations this year.
In the meantime, Kalshi has felt the impact of regulatory scrutiny. The National Football League (NFL) is firmly opposed to the inclusion of injury-related event contracts in prediction markets. Following a recent appearance of NFL injury markets on Kalshi's platform, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) requested their removal. This follows the CFTC’s earlier public interest directives, which raised concerns about the potential risk of creating harmful financial incentives linked to athletes' health.
In more positive news for Kalshi, the platform has secured the position of exclusive official prediction markets partner for the US Open tennis tournament, starting with the ongoing 2026 edition. The US Tennis Association’s CEO, Craig Tiley, expressed enthusiasm for the partnership, emphasizing it as an opportunity to enhance fan engagement while maintaining the integrity of the sport.
However, not all reactions have been favorable. Following reports of discussions between Kalshi and The Athletic regarding a sponsorship deal, The New York Times-owned publication faced considerable backlash from its workers’ union, The NewsGuild of New York. Staff members claimed that such a partnership would jeopardize their journalistic independence and pointed out that Kalshi’s operations have been described by New York officials as “illegal.” Despite the strong pushback, a source reported that the union's stance did not influence the decision to withdraw from discussions about the sponsorship.
In another significant development, venture capital firm 1789 Capital is leading a new funding round for Polymarket, projected to elevate the company’s valuation to $21 billion. The round aims to raise $1 billion, with 1789 Capital contributing an additional $300 million, effectively doubling its initial investment. Donald Trump Jr. is noted as a partner at 1789 Capital and serves as an advisor to both Polymarket and Kalshi.
Lastly, Rothera has struck a deal with Stats Perform, joining other platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket in securing access to official sports data, which is crucial for the functioning of prediction markets. Rothera plans to utilize this partnership to enhance their trading and settlement processes for sports event contracts.
