Nearly a year after the significant hike in remote gaming duty (RGD) announced by former Chancellor Rachel Reeves during her Autumn Budget, the ramifications are evident in the UK gambling landscape. The RGD soared from 21% to 40%, effective April 1, resulting in an industry shakeup. Retail sectors are contracting, major operators have initiated job cuts, and the largest companies are recalibrating to seize market share.
As attention turns to the upcoming Budget speech by the new Chancellor, John Healey, scheduled for Wednesday, the gambling sector braces for further challenges, particularly with expectations of an increase in machine games duty (MGD). The overarching question remains: how has the UK gambling scene evolved in response to the RGD hike, and what could be ahead?
The impact of Reeves’ Budget has been significant, with the increase in RGD noticeable soon after implementation. Additionally, a new general betting duty rate for remote betting set at 25% will come into effect in April 2027, up from the previous 15%.
Grainne Hurst, CEO of the Betting and Gaming Council, criticized the raised tax rates back in November, labeling them as “excessive” and warned that they could deliver a “devastating hammer blow” to the UK industry.
Recent data from the Gambling Commission indicates a minor decline in the number of licensed gambling operators. As of March 31, 2026, there were 2,154 licensed operators, marking a 1.1% decrease from the previous year. This decline continues a trend from 2017 through 2025, although the latest figure is an improvement over past years.
Despite these drops, the overall market appears more resilient than anticipated. Total gross gambling yield (GGY) increased by 4.4% to £17.5 billion, with remote casino, betting, and bingo activities experiencing a surge of 6.9%.
H2 Gambling Capital Managing Director Ed Birkin noted that the true effects of the RGD increase are still unfolding. He emphasizes that operators continue to compete fiercely for market share despite the increased tax load, adding, “I don’t think it’s having a material impact yet.”
However, the dawn of the new RGD rate has prompted several major UK operators to implement cost-reduction strategies. Flutter Entertainment, for example, recently announced a restructuring plan that could lead to the cutting of up to 1,400 jobs. Similarly, Evoke closed around 200 William Hill shops earlier in the year, and Betfred reported plans to shutter up to 132 locations, resulting in a loss of more than 600 jobs.
Bet365 also disclosed plans to reduce its workforce by approximately 340 positions, demonstrating the stringent cost management now necessary for UK operators.
The wave of layoffs and closures has raised concerns about further shrinkage in the regulated gambling market. Steve Donoghue, CEO of Gambling Consultant, warned that the layoffs at Flutter might not be isolated incidents. He cautioned that the sector could be “decimated,” with potential job losses numbering in the thousands. He pointed out that increased taxes might drive customers toward unlicensed operations, exposing them to heightened risks and reduced consumer protections.
Donoghue attributed the ongoing discussion about tax increases to political motivations, stating, “Populist left wing puritanism is resurgent… the inability of this industry to counteract these perspectives speaks to their political strategies.”
While the RGD increase primarily targeted online gambling, the consequences are especially severe for retail operations. The number of gambling venues in Great Britain dipped by 2% to 8,081 between April 2025 and March 2026. Retail GGY also fell by 3.3% to £2.4 billion. The decline may become even more pronounced in the next annual report from the Gambling Commission, reflecting the abrupt closures.
As the Autumn Budget approaches, anticipation builds around the potential rise in MGD, currently at 20%. A group of Labour MPs has urged Healey to implement an increase, contributing to the climate of uncertainty regarding tax alterations.
Proposals discussed include a doubling of MGD to 40%, although some forecasts suggest a more modest increase of around 5%. Such changes could radically affect the landscape; Jenningsbet CEO Greg Knight has indicated that a doubling could lead to the closure of “100 shops,” while Betfred owner Fred Done expressed worries that retail betting could face extinction by 2030, stating, “I believe that by 2030 we will have no betting shops.”
The Betting and Gaming Council has referenced modeling from EY, warning that a rise in MGD to 40% could result in nearly 1,500 betting shop closures, alongside the loss of 34 casinos and 16,000 jobs.
Despite the anticipated challenges for retail, the online segment appears more robust, with larger operators positioned to better endure the forthcoming tax adjustments. Entain’s Q3 report showed a 14% year-on-year increase in UK and Ireland online net gaming revenue. CEO Stella David expressed confidence in Entain’s ability to manage an MGD increase, suggesting the company might emerge as a “relative winner” and gain market share.
Even amid the announced job cuts, Flutter’s UK and Ireland CEO Kevin Harrington maintained optimism about capitalizing on share gains, citing the company’s large scale. Richard Clarke from Flutter-owned brands also remarked on the advantages big businesses hold in this shifting landscape.
Birkin underscored that while size may aid operators in weathering tax changes, agility will also play a crucial role. He warned that smaller operators might face disproportionate challenges, potentially accelerating the trend of market share moving toward larger companies.
As the gambling sector grapples with the ongoing ramifications of the RGD increase, its stakeholders eagerly await the Chancellor’s comments on potential tax changes and how these will reverberate throughout the industry.
