In 2025, Brazilian families incurred losses totaling BRL62.5 billion (approximately $12.5 billion) due to betting operators, according to a recent study. During the same year, these operators processed BRL350.97 billion in transactions through Pix, an instant cash transfer service in Brazil.
This data comes from the third edition of the Fiscal Bulletin of Brazilian States, which indicates that these figures surpass the amounts reported by the Secretariat of Lotteries and Betting (SPA), the governing body for betting activities in Brazil. The study itself was conducted by Comsefaz, the National Committee of Secretaries of Finance, in collaboration with the Celso Furtado International Center for Development Policy. Researchers utilized data from the Central Bank, EPAE (Statistics on Payments by Economic Activity), along with their calculations to arrive at their findings.
In terms of illegal betting, research from LCA Consultores, a market intelligence firm based in São Paulo, estimated that underground betting operations represented between 41% and 51% of the total market. The discrepancy between the estimates from Comsefaz, which reported BRL62.5 billion, and the Ministry of Finance, which estimated BRL36.9 billion, amounts to BRL25.6 billion, reflecting roughly 41% of the total as outlined in the report. This aligns with the lower end of LCA's findings regarding the underground market.
An article from the Brazilian newspaper Folha pointed out that newly regulated betting operators influenced a significant shift in Pix transfer patterns, particularly from individuals to businesses in the arts, culture, sports, and recreation sectors.
The BRL62.5 billion figure represents the net transaction value, calculated as the total money wagered minus the winnings returned to players. This amount signifies about 0.68% of the gross disposable income for Brazilian households, indicating that expanding betting operations are beginning to affect the financial realities of these families.
The report also examined the effects of regulated betting operations on Pix transactions from October 2024 to March 2026. Researchers predicted the transfer volume from consumers to businesses in various sectors, hypothesizing what it would look like had the regulations not been implemented. By comparing this hypothetical volume to actual figures, they gauged the influence of betting activities on transaction flows. However, the authors cautioned that the analysis was a statistical simulation and did not establish a causal relationship.
Notably, the ban on betting for beneficiaries of Bolsa Família, Brazil's social welfare program, appeared to slow the growth in transaction volumes, suggesting that lower-income families are significantly engaged in the online sports betting market. The reduction in transaction growth brought estimated transfer volumes in line with the actual observed levels.
