In 2025, Brazilian households suffered losses amounting to BRL62.5 billion (approximately $12.5 billion) from betting operators, according to a recent study. Simultaneously, these companies facilitated BRL350.97 billion in transactions using Pix, an instant cash transfer system.
This analysis is part of the third edition of the Fiscal Bulletin of Brazilian States, revealing figures that surpass those reported by the Secretariat of Lotteries and Betting (SPA), the governing body overseeing gambling in Brazil.
Compiled by Comsefaz, the National Committee of Secretaries of Finance, in collaboration with the Celso Furtado International Center for Development Policy, the study utilized data from the Central Bank, the EPAE (Statistics on Payments by Economic Activity), and original calculations by the authors.
When examining the illegal betting market, a report by LCA Consultores, a São Paulo-based market intelligence firm, estimated that underground betting operations constituted between 41% and 51% of the overall market. The discrepancy between the loss figures from Comsefaz (BRL62.5 billion) and those from the Ministry of Finance (BRL36.9 billion) was BRL25.6 billion, aligning closely with LCA's lower estimate.
The study, as reported by Brazilian newspaper Folha, pointed out that the regulation of betting operators has led to a significant shift in Pix transactions, particularly affecting business transfers within the arts, culture, sports, and recreation sectors.
The reported BRL62.5 billion losses indicate the net amount lost (total wagers minus winnings) and represent about 0.68% of the gross disposable income of Brazilian households. This growth in the betting sector demonstrates a tangible impact on the financial situations of families in Brazil.
The report also focused on the effects of regulated betting operators on Pix transactions from October 2024 to March 2026. Researchers forecasted transfer volumes from individuals to companies in relevant sectors, assuming no regulatory changes occurred, and compared this to actual figures, drawing conclusions about the impact attributed to betting operators.
However, the authors cautioned that their findings were based on statistical simulations and did not definitively establish cause-and-effect relationships.
Additionally, the report mentioned that restrictions on betting for Bolsa Família beneficiaries contributed to a deceleration in transaction growth, bringing the estimated transfer figures more in line with observed data. This observation underlined the significant involvement of lower-income families in Brazil's online sports betting market.
