Genius Sports has signed new partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket, reinforcing its strategy in the prediction markets and highlighting the importance of official data for operators, according to CEO Mark Locke.
This week, the company unveiled its agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket, further realizing its goal of becoming a strong player in the prediction markets sector. These partnerships allow Kalshi and Polymarket to utilize Genius Sports’ data for settling sports contracts, alongside receiving information-sharing and integrity services. The agreements also place limitations on certain market types and enhance visibility into trading activity.
Locke commented during the company’s Q2 earnings call, "What we’ve established with Kalshi and Polymarket is a foundation upon which we will layer more content, more services, and more territories over time. It is the same compounding playbook that you have watched us execute in sports betting, now applied to prediction markets."
Genius Sports has built a significant portion of its business by providing regulated sportsbooks with official league data and related services, collaborating with various sports leagues and organizations globally. The relationships between leagues and prediction markets are becoming increasingly robust, as evidenced by Polymarket's partnerships with major leagues such as:
– MLB
– NHL
– UFC
– Different soccer leagues, including the German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A, Spanish La Liga, Mexican Liga MX, and Major League Soccer.
Notably, the Liga MX partnership, which focuses on the U.S. market, involves Genius Sports supplying official data to Polymarket since June. According to the companies, the collaboration will also see Polymarket receive live-streaming rights and league intellectual property for select official competitions, including Serie A, to which Polymarket is an exclusive partner in the U.S.
For companies like Genius Sports and Sportradar, which also partners with Kalshi, the collaboration between leagues and prediction markets opens up new commercial opportunities, as every sports betting operator, whether state-regulated or Commodity Futures Trading Commission-registered, depends on match data.
Locke explained that both Kalshi and Polymarket have formed partnerships with leagues such as the Argentine Football Association, Liga MX, and Serie A, all built on the official data and integrity provided by Genius. He stated, "Building on those league partnerships, we’ve now established direct commercial agreements with both prediction market platforms, covering a wide range of content across our data portfolio.
"What is clear is that the direction of travel is towards more official data, not less. We own the official data that the regulated ecosystem, sportsbooks, media, and now prediction markets depend on."
One significant player missing from the list of leagues collaborating with prediction markets is the NFL. Genius Sports holds official data rights for the NFL, having won the position in 2021 after a competitive bidding process against Sportradar and others. The company serves as the exclusive distributor, offering real-time statistics and official sports betting data to sportsbooks and media partners.
Since the initial agreement, Genius Sports and the NFL have expanded their partnership to incorporate features like the sports betting streaming solution BetVision and the GeniusIQ sports data and AI platform. The partnership was renewed last year and will continue until the end of the 2029 NFL season.
Locke has indicated that Genius Sports does not foresee the NFL embracing prediction markets soon but believes the company could greatly benefit if the NFL decides to engage with prediction market platforms like others have. He noted, "Clearly it would be very significant. There’s a financial significance that comes directly with the sale of the data for the most important league. There’s obviously the value of the affiliation that they get, which has a real monetary value as well. We’ve got a very close eye on it; if I were you, I wouldn’t be expecting that to come through this season."
The NFL has taken a careful approach towards prediction markets expansion, contrasting with leagues like MLB and the NHL. In a comment letter to the CFTC, Brendon Plack, the NFL's SVP of Public Policy and Government Affairs, stated that the commission’s prediction market rule proposal "falls significantly short" in addressing integrity risks, consumer protection, and preventing manipulation and match-fixing.
Locke interpreted the NFL's stance positively, suggesting that it underscores the necessity for the kind of official data and integrity services offered by Genius Sports. He remarked, "The largest league in America has put on record that this category runs on infrastructure. That infrastructure is what we have spent two decades building."
Despite the NFL’s hesitance, Locke reiterated that leagues, both in the U.S. and Europe, are increasingly aligning themselves with prediction markets. "Globally, I think there’s an evolution and a move towards it. Partners like Serie A and Liga MX have all moved into the prediction market world. Expect that trend to continue and there to be additional opportunities. We see this as a real growth opportunity for us."
Locke and CFO Bryan Castellani reported that Genius Sports saw significant revenue from prediction markets in Q2 before the new deals with Kalshi and Polymarket took effect. Castellani expects a gradual increase in that revenue.
In addition to core data and integrity partnerships, Genius Sports is capitalizing on its $1.2 billion acquisition of digital sports and gaming media network Legend in early 2026. Locke pointed out that prediction markets exemplify the audience cross-sell opportunities resulting from this acquisition.
Genius Sports believes its work with prediction markets benefits it in three primary ways: supplying data services and integrity deals, selling direct data and pricing services to market makers, and through media marketing. Locke concluded, "With the number of prediction market operators entering the space, the demand for our products and services is growing. We own the official data that the regulated ecosystem, sportsbooks, media, and now prediction markets rely on, and we also own the audience layer on top of it. We believe we are only beginning to monetize the full potential."
Genius Sports reported a 65% year-over-year revenue increase in its Q2 results, totaling $195.5 million, with both revenue and adjusted EBITDA surpassing projections. This led the company to raise its full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance, setting midpoints of $1.02 billion and $290 million, respectively. Revenue in Genius Sports’ Media Technology, Content & Services division nearly tripled, rising 193% year-over-year to $78.2 million, while its Betting Technology, Content & Services division contributed $117.4 million to total revenue, marking a 28% increase. The total operating loss has decreased from $80.7 million to $55.7 million.
