Australia is set to host its inaugural regular season NFL game, attracting around 10,000 American fans to the Melbourne Cricket Ground. This significant event will feature a contest between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers, taking place approximately 7,971 miles from Levi’s Stadium, where the teams last faced each other.
Despite the allure of placing bets, attendees will be unable to participate in live trading on prediction markets from their seats. The Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) has deemed such trading illegal within the country, as these markets are not recognized as legitimate financial platforms. Recently, ASIC reiterated its warnings about prediction markets, advising potential investors to be cautious of offshore platforms lacking local licenses.
NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell expressed support for the crackdown in an interview with CNBC. He stressed the necessity for stronger regulations in predictive markets to uphold the integrity of professional sports. "We want to see that to protect the integrity of our game — we want to make sure we are protecting the consumers that are on those platforms," Goodell commented.
Kalshi, a rising player in the US prediction market, has remained quiet on international expansion plans. Some believe Kalshi will await the completion of its initial public offering before reaching out to foreign markets. The company has set a valuation target of approximately $44 billion. Kalshi enforces strict sign-up procedures requiring proof of US residency and a tax identification number. A recent member agreement indicated that users in around 36 countries, including Australia, are barred from trading on event contracts, reserving the right to deny access for those in restricted areas.
ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland cautioned users that engaging with overseas operators could lead them to lose important legal protections available in Australia. In 2025, the Australian Communications and Media Authority prohibited Polymarket from operating in the country due to violations of the Interactive Gaming Act of 2001, specifically for accepting in-game betting on sporting events.
On the betting front, the Rams are significant underdogs against the 49ers, with Kalshi assigning them a 64% chance of winning the contest. A trader risking $100 could see a payout of $150.15 should the Rams triumph. The team has recently bolstered its lineup by adding Pro Bowl defenders Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie and is favored to win Super Bowl LXI in February.
The Rams are currently the only NFL franchise with double-digit odds at the season's start, pegged at 17% on Kalshi's futures market. This translates to +488 in American odds, considered quite low for a Super Bowl favorite. Historically, teams starting the season with odds of +500 or lower have not secured the championship, as all of the last 25 such teams have failed to win the Super Bowl according to Yahoo Sports.
In May, the NFL communicated with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission regarding its objections to certain event contracts. They highlighted contracts related to player injuries, penalty totals, and missed field goals as areas of concern. Goodell acknowledged that discussions about prediction markets are ongoing, as public policies evolve. Other leagues, such as Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League, have signed agreements with the CFTC allowing their teams to collaborate with operating firms.
"We don’t think we have to be first in this, we feel like we’re going to be right," Goodell noted. "The best thing to do is be patient and make sure you keep the integrity of the game No. 1."
