England and France face off on Saturday in the World Cup's third-place match, taking place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami with kickoff set for 5 p.m. ET, broadcast live on FOX.
Kalshi has positioned France as the -178 favorite and England as the underdog at +170, while the draw is listed at +285.
Various betting markets on Kalshi for the England vs. France match include:
– England to win in regulation is given a 25% probability at +300.
– France's moneyline in regulation reflects a 51% chance at -104.
– Over 3.5 goals scored has a 45% estimate at +122.
– France to win by 1.5 goals carries a 29% likelihood at +245.
– Kylian Mbappe to score is considered at 55% with odds of -122.
For the best bet in the matchup, the prediction leans towards France winning in regulation at -104. This game presents challenges in terms of predictions due to both teams' potential lack of motivation and uncertainties over starting lineups and durations on the field. England comes into this match following a heartbreaking 2-1 loss to Argentina, where two late goals from Argentina sealed their defeat. France, conversely, has a slight advantage with an additional day of rest after their 2-0 defeat against Spain.
A win for England would mark their best performance since claiming the World Cup title in 1966. Meanwhile, France's Kylian Mbappe has personal stakes riding on the match, as he shares a tie with Argentina's Lionel Messi in the Golden Boot rankings. Despite not scoring in previous encounters against England, Mbappe boasts an impressive record of 20 goals in 21 World Cup matches, just one behind Messi on the all-time list. Both players currently have eight goals in the tournament, with Kalshi's Golden Boot odds showing Messi at -144 and Mbappe at +144.
Third-place matches often allow for more liberated gameplay, potentially benefiting Mbappe. Additionally, the match carries emotional significance for France's manager, Didier Deschamps, who is stepping down after 14 years. Under his leadership, France secured the 2018 World Cup and finished as runners-up in 2022. A third-place finish could symbolize the completion of his tenure.
Kylian Mbappe is also the focus of player prop bets, with the line set for him to score over 0.5 goals at -122. Given his recent performance—scoring two goals in three World Cup matches—he is anticipated to be the leading scorer for this game. England’s recent defensive lapses, particularly in the late stages against Argentina, add to the likelihood of Mbappe finding the net. For those looking to take a bolder wager, Kalshi offers +456 odds on the chance of him scoring twice.
