The Dutch government has chosen to significantly limit gambling advertisements, proposing a ban on almost all online gambling ads, with only a few exceptions allowed. This initiative, announced in June by Claudia van Bruggen, state secretary for legal protection, goes beyond just advertisement restrictions; it includes eliminating sign-up bonuses like free bets, implementing a universal deposit limit across all operators, enhancing the self-exclusion register known as CRUKS, and committing to a tougher stance on illegal gambling activities.
"I find it particularly concerning that more and more people, and especially young people, have started gambling online and are getting into trouble as a result," Van Bruggen remarked at the time. "It is high time to reverse this trend."
The plan represents the latest step in an ongoing effort to enforce stricter regulations. Earlier measures included prohibiting celebrities in gambling advertisements, banning untargeted ads since July 2023, and restricting sports sponsorship from July 2025. Each of these regulations was intended to reduce public exposure to gambling, but officials have determined they did not achieve sufficient results, prompting further actions.
A more profound shift appears to be taking place beyond just advertising. When the Dutch online gambling market was opened in 2021, the goal was to channel players toward licensed operators. Justin Franssen, a partner at Amsterdam's gaming law firm Franssen Tolboom, suggests that this objective may have been abandoned, saying, "Yes, I think it has – and actually, not even that quietly," citing previous remarks by the former state secretary, Teun Struycken. According to Franssen, the focus has shifted from channelization to preventing gambling-related harm.
Current data indicates the policy may not be working as intended. The Netherlands Gambling Authority (KSA) reported that the legal market's share of gross gaming revenue fell to about 49% as of early 2025, with the black market estimated to account for around a quarter of all gambling in the country. Licensed operators point to the gaming tax of 37.8% and the very advertising restrictions that are being intensified as contributors to this decline.
Franssen critiques the lack of evidence supporting the effectiveness of a total advertising ban. He noted, "It’s a very simple answer, there is no evidence. There is no evidence that it will succeed." He highlighted the KSA's own reservations concerning such a ban.
The situation is marked by illegal advertising; Franssen estimates that around 95% of gambling ads on social media are from unlicensed operators. In June, the trade association VNLOK launched legal action against Meta and filed a complaint with the European Commission regarding illegal gambling advertisements, which amounted to over 70,000 instances in the last quarter of 2025 alone, most of which originated from unlicensed sources. VNLOK has assessed the illegal market in the Netherlands to exceed €1 billion annually, rivaling the regulated sector.
"What you ultimately achieve with a total ban is that you hand the entire stage to illegal operators while preventing licensed operators from informing consumers that a legal, regulated and protected alternative exists," Franssen argued. "In my view, it’s one of the worst policy ideas I’ve seen in many years."
Denmark, which opted against a blanket ban, has been implementing its own advertising restrictions since October 2022, including a whistle-to-whistle ban around live sports. Despite restricting advertisements, the unlicensed gambling market in Denmark has also surged. Morten Rønde, outgoing director of the Danish online gambling association Spillebranchen, reported a decline in the channelization rate from 90% to 70% over three years, attributing this shift to advertising restrictions, high taxes, and limits on licensed operators' game offerings.
Italy provides another example of this approach. Since the introduction of the "Dignity Decree" in 2018, which imposed a near-total ban on gambling ads, illegal gambling has thrived, with estimated activity worth €22 billion. Quirino Mancini, a partner at WH Partners Italy, criticized the ban as "short-sighted" and noted its minimal impact on channeling players to licensed services due to various loopholes that allow compliance while circumventing the ban.
Interestingly, there is evidence from the Netherlands that some regulatory measures do work. A deposit limit introduced in 2024, which set loss caps for different age groups and implemented affordability checks, saw significant positive outcomes. The rate of players exceeding their loss limits fell from 9.7% to 2.2%, and average monthly losses decreased by 31%.
Although the intention behind these measures is player protection – a goal that Franssen commends – he warns that the compounded effect of advertising restrictions, tax hikes, and heightened obligations for licensed operators may inadvertently push more players into the black market. He stated that not only might the proposed actions fail to improve conditions, they could easily exacerbate the problem.
The government's strategy for counteracting illegal operators is to strengthen enforcement powers for the KSA. However, Franssen doubts this will be effective, claiming that the black market has consistently found ways to evade enforcement. The reality is that a total advertising ban will require primary legislation, which could take years to finalize, allowing the concerning trends of a deepening black market and stagnant channelization rates to persist.
Concerned about the sustainability of the regulated market, Mancini succinctly affirmed, "Absolutely so. This is quite a safe bet." Rønde added a grim assessment, stating, "Everything indicates that the Dutch policymakers have already gone too far. When surveys show that the channelization rate is down to 50%, this tells me that the market is already not working. However, it seems like some stakeholders are willing to put the last nail in the coffin and bury the hope of a viable gambling market."
The government may find that as the licensed market diminishes, discussions about gambling may not cease but rather shift to where regulatory oversight cannot reach.
