Weeks after a US Army special forces member was indicted for insider trading on prediction markets, a Google employee has been charged for allegedly using non-public information for financial gain. Michele Spagnuolo, trading under the account name "AlphaRaccoon" on Polymarket, faces multiple charges in Manhattan linked to insider trading. Prosecutors claim that he misappropriated confidential data from Google to execute several profitable trades related to the company.
Spagnuolo is accused of accessing a Google software tool that provided real-time metrics regarding its "Year in Search" ranking. Between September and December 2024, he reportedly made at least 25 trades amounting to $2.75 million in the search-results markets, generating a profit of at least $1.2 million. The US Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York has charged him with commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering.
“Today’s charges reinforce a decades-old message: corporate insiders cannot use confidential business information to turn a profit in our markets,” stated US Attorney Jay Clayton. “Insider trading compromises the integrity of our markets, and the American people want this greed-driven conduct investigated and prosecuted.”
Meanwhile, Kalshi had more than three dozen markets related to Google on Friday. Notably, they featured a contract concerning the most searched person on Google for the year, with US President Donald Trump leading at 17%, followed closely by Bad Bunny at 16%, and Elon Musk at 10%. Trading volume in that market reached approximately $184,000.
In another significant development, Kalshi became the first company in US history to receive regulatory approval for offering crypto perpetual futures on a prediction market. Known as "perps," these derivatives allow traders to speculate on future asset prices, such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, without owning the assets themselves. These contracts share attributes with traditional futures contracts but lack an expiration date.
The US Commodity Futures Commission approved the listing of the BTCPERP Contract, which refers to the spot price of Bitcoin. CFTC Chair Michael Selig noted that this decision allows one of the most liquid segments of the crypto asset markets to fit within the US regulatory framework.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour described the company’s success with prediction markets as just the beginning of its broader objectives. He stated that perpetual futures are key to removing barriers in finance, asserting, “If a prediction market is a photograph of what the world thinks right now, a perpetual is a film – continuously updated, never ending, always present.”
In sports news, following a significant win against the Oklahoma City Thunder, the San Antonio Spurs saw their odds for an NBA title improve. The Spurs won Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals 118-97, pushing the series to a decisive Game 7. Their chances of winning the championship increased to 27% as of Friday, up from 15%. The New York Knicks, returning to the Finals for the first time in 27 years, also saw their title odds rise to 33%, marking an 11% spike.
However, the Thunder's loss resulted in a drop in their championship odds to 43%. Spurs star Victor Wembanyama scored 28 points and grabbed 10 rebounds in the game, recording his ninth 20-10 playoff performance, the most for anyone since Nikola Jokic had 13 in 2023. Wembanyama's odds for Finals MVP align closely with the Spurs' title chances, ranking second at 28%, behind the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at 43%. Knicks guard Jalen Brunson trails closely with 27%.
