In the latest episode of Right to the Source, hosts Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin revisit FanDuel following an insightful interview with Nigel Eccles and delve into several pivotal issues in the gambling sector. They also reintroduce a discussion about prediction markets, which seem to be making a comeback.
Ed shares an unreleased dataset from H2 that sheds light on NFL prediction markets, revealing a modest trend: the NFL sportsbook handle is largely stable this year, reporting a 0.4% increase in states that release figures, while seeing a decrease of 1% when including Florida. This stability stems from approximately 4% organic growth counterbalanced by a headwind from prediction markets, which is also around 4% to 5%.
Moreover, the role of prediction markets in the overall gambling space is expanding. Their share of the total handle in regulated areas has surged from about 5% six months ago to nearly 15%. A significant portion of this growth can be attributed to aggressive marketing during the World Cup and through August.
Among the states, one has emerged as facing the largest challenges; it has a climate that’s notably warmer. The hosts invite listeners to tune in for more details.
The episode also addresses the ongoing legal ambiguity surrounding prediction markets. Ed recounts insights from a recent trip to the U.S., noting that there’s a widespread belief that the conflict between states and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) may escalate to the Supreme Court by 2027 or 2028. Meanwhile, developments are already underway, highlighted by the NFL's recent filing of an amicus brief requesting the Supreme Court to consider Flaherty vs KalshiEx, LLC.
The conversation then shifts to mergers and acquisitions within the industry. Robin and Ed engage in a spirited debate over recent transactions, including the merger between Banijay and Tipico, with Flutter serving as a key example. Ed states that there is still no clear evidence that Flutter’s acquisitions have generated value beyond what FanDuel offers. The discussion raises questions about where Lottomatica’s acquisition of Cirsa fits within this landscape, inviting listeners to hear their conclusions.
