In mid-July, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver addressed the media during the league's Summer League tournament in Las Vegas, just four months after NBA owners voted unanimously to consider the city as a site for expansion. Silver informed reporters that "no votes have been taken yet" regarding finalizing expansion and acknowledged that discussions still have a long way to go. However, he expressed optimism about the future of basketball in Las Vegas.
Since that time, various developments have arisen concerning the prospect of an NBA franchise in Las Vegas—a possibility that has long been anticipated. The city already accommodates the Summer League, the finals of the NBA Cup in-season tournament, and training camps for the U.S. men’s national basketball team, composed largely of NBA All-Stars.
Despite the numerous reasons for the NBA and Las Vegas to be interested in one another, some factors loom over the potential expansion. One significant factor is the recent activity regarding NBA ownership. Last week, the basketball community was taken aback by the news that the Los Angeles Lakers are being sold to a group led by investor Josh Kushner and former Disney CEO Bob Iger, in a deal valuing the franchise at a staggering $12.5 billion. This figure not only shattered the previous NBA record of $10 billion—set by the Lakers themselves when they were sold to Mark Walter less than a year ago—but also raised the average valuation across the league considerably amid ongoing discussions.
If Kushner and Iger were leading contenders for a Las Vegas franchise brimming with potential, questions arise about their sudden interest in acquiring an existing team for a record price. Bill Simmons, the former ESPN journalist and host of one of the top-rated podcasts in the U.S., may provide some insight into this. On his show, Simmons stated that the bidding price for a Las Vegas team is now "unquestionably over $9 billion." Although this figure remains unverified, it does align with earlier reports estimating the price between $7 billion and $10 billion, a hefty sum for a franchise lacking an established home arena.
Simmons suggested that Kushner and Iger may have presented bids for the team, but did not submit the highest offer. He conveyed skepticism about the current valuation of a team in Las Vegas, especially when considering the potential need for a new arena—an uncertain matter in the market. To emphasize this point, he compared the $9 billion figure to the current market capitalization of well-known corporations like Caesars Entertainment, valued at $6 billion, and Wynn Resorts and MGM Resorts, which are slightly more at around $10 billion. If deep-pocketed investors are contemplating such a price to secure a Las Vegas franchise, they might prefer to invest in companies that already have real estate holdings, such as Wynn.
If the purchase price surpasses $9 billion, the additional costs for a new arena could push total expenses close to or above the Lakers' sale price. The Lakers have claimed 16 NBA championships and operate in a city with a population nearly six times that of Las Vegas. A similar endeavor, the Oakland Athletics MLB stadium project on the Strip, has also seen skyrocketing costs, estimated to exceed $2 billion before its opening, which is still two years away.
In a broader context for the NBA, Las Vegas represents only a segment of a more complex ownership scenario. The league's preference is to add two teams to maintain balanced conference alignments or refrain from expansion altogether. Earlier this spring, Seattle was also approved as a prospective expansion site alongside Las Vegas; however, there has been noticeably less enthusiasm surrounding a revival of the former SuperSonics franchise. Compounding this issue, the recent sale of the NFL’s Seattle Seahawks for a league-record $9.6 billion may deter potential buyers from considering a Seattle team.
Two existing NBA teams are also entangled in ownership challenges. The Phoenix Suns, acquired by mortgage entrepreneur Mat Ishbia in 2023 for a valuation of $4 billion, present a troubling case. A few days prior to the acquisition, Ishbia obtained two loans from JPMorgan to secure liquidity, pledging 805 million shares of United Wholesale Mortgage as collateral. The value of those shares has since plummeted significantly, impacting Ishbia's financial standing without being dire yet. Journalistic sources report that if conditions worsen, he could face an asset sale as the only viable solution.
In Portland, reactions to the Trail Blazers' new ownership under Tom Dundon have been negative. After purchasing a controlling interest at a valuation of $4.25 billion in 2025, Dundon has been criticized for scaling back team expenses, including coach salaries and travel allowances. Currently, he is in a contentious dispute with local officials over securing hundreds of millions in public funding for arena renovations, with some fearing he plans to relocate the team as soon as possible—potentially to Las Vegas, just as the Raiders and Athletics did after failed negotiations for public support in Oakland.
Amid these dynamics, NBA ownership may choose to postpone finalizing expansion plans if Las Vegas proves to be a potential destination for new franchises. While approving expansion could yield substantial fees for team owners, it could also dilute their future earnings as league revenues would be divided among 31 or 32 teams instead of the current 30. Prospective buyers may also want to monitor Ishbia’s situation in Phoenix, as his franchise could be available at a lower cost compared to the anticipated $9 billion for a Las Vegas team.
Economic considerations will certainly impact these decisions for both Las Vegas and the broader U.S. market. The period from 2021-2024 saw Las Vegas thrive as Americans returned from pandemic lockdowns, buoyed by government stimulus packages. Selling an NBA franchise during this boom might have seemed feasible, but market performance has diminished since 2025. Gaming revenue has fluctuated, while tourism and air travel have both experienced slowdowns, with visitation dropping 7.5% in 2025 and continuing declines observed in 2026. International travel is particularly concerning, down 10% this year.
The revenue generated from prestigious sporting events might be plateauing; for example, the Formula One Las Vegas Grand Prix has remained around the $1 billion mark in revenue for the last two years after an initial surge to $1.5 billion. Jeremy Aguero from Applied Analysis remarked that although the NBA’s prominence is substantial, expectations of perpetual exponential growth in Las Vegas are likely misplaced.
Wynn CEO Craig Billings echoed similar sentiments during a recent earnings call, noting that the abundance of regular season NBA games in comparison to NFL games can lead to a dilution of impact. He indicated that Wynn primarily attracts a limited number of influential visitors affiliated with the league, rather than a broader fanbase.
Optimism persists despite challenges in the broader U.S. economy. Shifting tariffs and the ongoing conflict in Iran have tempered expectations for what many anticipated would be an economically robust year. Although stock markets have reached new heights, other critical metrics tell a different story. Inflation measured 3.4% in July, surpassing the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, while interest rates have remained steady between 3.5%-3.75% all year. On trading platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in September stands at 73%, with a rate increase considered unlikely. No rate cuts are expected for the remainder of the year either.
The combination of persistent inflation and stagnant interest rates is generally unfavorable for deal-making, leaving few buyers able to afford a $9 billion or higher price tag for a Las Vegas NBA team. Nevertheless, there is hope in financial circles that a resolution in the Middle East and a stabilization of tariffs could invigorate mergers and acquisitions soon. "2026 has reaffirmed that activity and complexity can coexist," stated Charlie Bouckaert, JPMorgan's head of advisory and M&A, in a recent report. "Boardrooms have a clear bias to action as companies recognize that standing still carries risk, and the strategic imperative to act increasingly outweighs uncertainty."
