The 2016 Travers Stakes featured an unexpected triumph with Leading Change, a rapidly advancing horse who, like Arrogate, made a significant mark at the Saratoga Race Course. Arrogate had previously made headlines with his impressive 13 ½-length victory and track record during his fifth start, which eventually propelled him to beat California Chrome at the Breeders Cup Classic.
In a surprising turn of events, Leading Change surged ahead under jockey Manny Franco, overcoming front-runner Napoleon Solo to win by half a length. This three-year-old, a progeny of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner, also surpassed Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo and multiple stakes winners during only his third career race.
Similar to Arrogate, Leading Change drew attention with his odds of 11/1, yielding a $22.76 payout for a $2 bet. Trainer Brad Cox, who won the Travers in 2021 with Essential Quality, initially aimed to debut Leading Change at Keeneland last fall as a two-year-old, but a minor injury delayed his progress.
Now boasting a perfect record of 3-for-3, Leading Change won his maiden race in June by a sizeable 6 ½ lengths at Churchill Downs and then followed with a narrow win in the Indiana Derby, demonstrating his capability in longer distances. This victory led Cox and owner Wathnan Racing to confidently select Leading Change for the Travers over Commandment, another of Cox's trainees who had placed second in the Jim Dandy.
"We were very confident going in. And when I say we, I mean Brad’s confidence translated to my confidence," stated Case Clay, the US racing manager for Wathnan Racing.
In the race, Golden Tempo, who had previously secured wins at both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes, encountered traffic troubles when Napoleon Solo interfered with his lane, causing him to finish in third place, thus ending his two-race winning streak. Favorited at 2/1, Golden Tempo is now being readied for the Breeders Cup Classic by trainer Cherie DeVaux.
DeVaux, however, had better fortune with another of her horses, Englishman, who dominated the Grade I H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes. With jockey Jose Ortiz riding, Englishman quickly took a two-length lead and finished six furlongs in an impressive 1:08.4, just three-tenths of a second shy of the track record. His final time was 1:20.71, earning a Beyer speed figure of 117. Compared to this, Leading Change's Beyer in the Travers was 103, although Englishman has now recorded two of the three highest Beyers in the U.S. this year.
DeVaux remarked on Englishman’s performance, saying, "It was another electrifying performance. He’s an exciting horse, and I would be hard pressed to have another horse like him in my barn, ever."
Looking forward, DeVaux plans to prepare Englishman for the Breeders' Cup Sprint, with the highest Beyer figure this year being 122 by Knightsbridge in the Pacific Classic.
After the Travers, Sovereignty emerged as the 3/1 favorite in the Breeders' Cup Classic futures pool. Sovereignty, who had previously won the Grade I Whitney, missed last year's Classic due to illness. He currently holds a slight lead over the defending champion Forever Young and Golden Tempo at odds of 9/2 and 8/1, respectively, although Golden Tempo's odds have dropped from 12/1.
DeVaux confirmed on Sunday, "He exited the race in good order, we’ll just keep marching on to the Breeders' Cup. He ran a better race than he’s been running. Golden Tempo is a horse that needs things to go his way and, unfortunately, got stuck on the inside and got stopped a few times in his run."
As for Leading Change, at odds of 18/1, it's uncertain if he will compete in the Classic. Trainer Cox has yet to determine the next steps for Leading Change, despite the promising future indicated by his victory. The Thoroughbred Championship Series, aimed at three-year-olds and concluding before the Breeders Cup, will begin next year, providing potential opportunities for talented newcomers like Leading Change.
Cox praised Leading Change's intelligence and calm demeanor in training, drawing a parallel to his sister, Shedaresthedevil, a multiple stakes winner who captured the 2020 Kentucky Oaks. Owned by Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Emir of Qatar, Wathnan is considered one of the top racing stables globally. Clay reminisced about a conversation with Cox at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale last year, where Cox identified Leading Change as a prized prospect. Wathnan acquired him for $800,000 a year prior.
Cox remains cautious about Leading Change facing veterans like Forever Young and Sovereignty but acknowledged that he could change his perspective as Leading Change gains more experience. He stated, "He’s a Grade I winner, and I’m going to enjoy this victory. But listen, at some point, there’s zero doubt that down the line, he has the potential to be one of the top horses in the country."
