The 2016 Travers Stakes produced a remarkable upset as the underdog, Leading Change, won The Midsummer Derby at Saratoga Race Course, showing that talent can shine through even with limited experience. In a thrilling race, jockey Manny Franco urged Leading Change past Napoleon Solo to clinch victory by half a length, also overcoming Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo and other notable competitors.
Though this was only Leading Change's third career start, the horse, a progeny of Gun Runner, demonstrated impressive skill, mirroring the trajectory of Arrogate, who set a track record when he won the Travers in 2016. Leading Change, starting at 11/1 odds, returned a payout of $22.76 for every $2 bet. Trainer Brad Cox, who previously won the Travers with Essential Quality in 2021, had initially planned for Leading Change to compete as a 2-year-old at Keeneland last fall, but a minor bone bruise forced a postponement.
With a current record of 3-for-3, Leading Change broke his maiden with a 6 ½-length win at Churchill Downs in June and then triumphed in the Indiana Derby last month, prompting Cox and Wathnan Racing's Case Clay to confidently enter him into the Travers instead of another Cox-trained horse, Commandment.
“We were very confident going in. And when I say we, I mean Brad’s confidence translated to my confidence,” Clay remarked.
Meanwhile, Golden Tempo, the favorite at 2/1, faced issues during the race as he was cut off by Napoleon Solo and finished third, snapping his two-race winning streak. Despite this setback, Golden Tempo remains a strong contender for the upcoming Breeders' Cup Classic, according to trainer Cherie DeVaux.
In another highlight, DeVaux's Englishman starred on the Travers undercard, dominating the Grade I H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes under jockey Jose Ortiz. Englishman sprinted to a two-length lead and completed a six-furlong race in an impressive 1:08.4, finishing just three-tenths of a second shy of the track record and earning a Beyer speed figure of 117. This places him among the top-performing horses this year in the U.S., while Leading Change recorded a Beyer of 103.
“It was another electrifying performance,” DeVaux said. “He’s an exciting horse; it would be hard pressed to have another horse like him in my barn, ever.” DeVaux plans to prepare Englishman for the Breeders' Cup Sprint next.
Post-Travers, Sovereignty emerged as the favorite at 3/1 for the Breeders' Cup Classic on Sunday, following the closure of Pool #1 for futures betting. Sovereignty, who won the Grade I Whitney, is looking for redemption after missing last year's Classic due to illness. He leads a competitive field that includes last year's champion, Forever Young, and Golden Tempo, who is now at 8/1 odds.
Clay confirmed that Leading Change is currently listed at 18/1 in the futures market, as Cox has yet to determine if the horse will be entered into the Classic. Next year, a new Thoroughbred Championship Series will premiere, culminating in a championship event for three-year-olds, presenting a fitting occasion for advanced horses like Leading Change as Cox considers his next steps.
During a recent press conference, Cox praised Leading Change's calm demeanor, comparing him to Shedaresthedevil, a top stakes winner from 2020. Wathnan Racing, owned by the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, is recognized as one of the world's most prominent racing operations. Cox recalls how he identified Leading Change as a standout yearling, which Wathnan purchased for $800,000 a year ago.
While Leading Change's immediate future might be uncertain against seasoned competitors such as Forever Young and Sovereignty, Cox remains optimistic about the horse’s potential. "He’s a Grade I winner and I’m going to enjoy this victory, but at some point, there’s zero doubt that down the line, he has the potential to be one of the top horses in the country," he stated after the Travers win.
