Melbourne is set to host its first regular season NFL game, with an anticipated 10,000 US fans arriving at the Melbourne Cricket Ground for a matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers. This event takes place approximately 7,971 miles from Levi's Stadium, which hosted their last face-off. Although California is a fertile ground for prediction markets, the American visitors to Thursday's game (Friday in Melbourne) will be unable to trade from their seats.
The reason behind this limitation lies in Australian law. Trading on prediction markets has been deemed illegal by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC), the country’s financial services regulator. In a recent statement, ASIC reinforced that prediction markets are not licensed to operate in Australia, urging caution among consumers considering investments on unlicensed offshore platforms.
This warning aligns with the interests of NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, who has been advocating for stricter regulations in the realm of predictive markets in the United States. He spoke to CNBC shortly before the game, stating, "We think there needs to be stronger regulations into the predictive markets. We want to see that to protect the integrity of our game – we want to make sure we are protecting the consumers that are on those platforms."
Kalshi, a US-based prediction market, has yet to publicly discuss plans for international expansion, and some believe it will delay any moves overseas until completing its initial public offering (IPO). Currently valued at around $44 billion, Kalshi requires potential users to provide proof of US residency and a US tax identification number, as part of a rigorous customer verification process. Its member agreement explicitly states that users from many countries, including Australia, are prohibited from trading event contracts on its site.
In an August statement, ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland warned that users engaging with foreign operators might forfeit protections available to them domestically. Similarly, the Australian Communications and Media Authority previously banned Polymarket from operating in Australia in 2025, citing violations linked to in-play betting on sporting events.
As for the Rams, they enter the game with a 64% chance of winning according to Kalshi's odds. A successful $100 bet on a Rams victory would yield a return of $150.15. After acquiring Pro Bowl players Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie, the Rams are heavily favored to win the upcoming Super Bowl LXI. However, the team's futures odds of 17% on Kalshi mark them as the only NFL team. History shows that no team has won the Super Bowl after opening a season with odds of +500 or lower, as noted by Yahoo Sports.
In May, the NFL communicated with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission to outline certain event contracts it found troubling. Following the CFTC's draft regulations in July, the league reiterated concerns about props on player injuries and other aspects. Goodell acknowledged that the NFL is open to discussions about prediction markets as the public policy landscape shifts. Meanwhile, both Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League have agreed to a Memorandum of Understanding with the CFTC, permitting teams to collaborate with operators in this space.
"We don't think we have to be first in this, we feel like we're going to be right," Goodell remarked. "The best thing to do is be patient and make sure you keep the integrity of the game number one."
