As Patrick Mahomes prepared to step onto the field for his NFL regular-season debut on September 13, the U.S. prediction markets were already making headlines, surpassing significant trading benchmarks for the first week of the NFL season. Kalshi and Polymarket, two primary operators in the field, collectively exceeded $1 billion in NFL trading volume during the opening six days of Week 1. Notably, Kalshi reported an impressive NFL trading volume of $983.4 million, directly according to figures from DeFi Rate, positioning itself at the forefront of the industry.
Monday Night Football featured a decisive game where the Kansas City Chiefs, with Mahomes leading, triumphed over the Denver Broncos 31-10. This match contributed to what was termed the largest week in prediction market history. Before this significant contest, it was apparent that the sector was on track to break previous records for weekly trading activity, which was further enhanced by the high-stakes AFC West clash. In total, the weekly volume hit an astounding $15.9 billion, marking a 16% increase compared to the preceding week, as reported by Bank of America.
Polymarket and Kalshi emerged as the dominant players by the end of Week 1. Kalshi experienced a minor decline in market share, dropping to 82% for the week ended September 13, down from 86% the previous week. Despite this decrease, Kalshi maintained a substantial lead, outpacing Polymarket by a ratio of nine to one. Meanwhile, Polymarket distinguished itself in app downloads, leading with 762,000 downloads, surpassing competitors DraftKings and FanDuel. According to Polymarket, this figure reflects a staggering 13,509% increase and accounts for 25% of total category downloads.
Among the various operators, there were noticeable gains compared to the previous weekend, which featured college football but not any NFL games. DraftKings and Underdog reported remarkable growth of 125% and 119%, respectively. Furthermore, Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Novig all saw minimum growth of 30%, with Polymarket leading at a 46% increase.
Interestingly, Kalshi's Sunday trading volume saw a rise of only $34 million compared to its past daily activity, as indicated by Bank of America data. Traditionally, Sundays during the NFL season draw significantly higher volumes than Saturdays filled with college games, a trend that BofA analyst Shaun Kelley linked to potential over-investment in college sports by Kalshi.
Kelley also pointed to enhancements made by Robinhood as a possible reason for Kalshi's sluggish performance. Ahead of the NFL season, Robinhood acquired a minority stake in Crypto.com and initiated a partnership to route NFL contracts to OG.com, its regulated prediction market platform. This partnership coincided with a 40% weekly increase at Crypto.com, which may explain the decline in Kalshi's numbers.
Across the broader market landscape, Crypto.com recorded an impressive $350 million in trading volume throughout the week, as highlighted by The PM Pulse, which collaborates with Aldrin Research to assess industry trends. The growth for Crypto.com was reported at 41%. While Kalshi and Polymarket collectively led with over $15 billion in weekly volume, four other platforms recorded trading activity exceeding $300 million, with Novig achieving nearly a 34% rise in trading, spurred by a notable advertisement featuring Sydney Sweeney.
Looking ahead, Week 2 of the NFL season promises to drive further enthusiasm in prediction markets, particularly with numerous high-profile teams set to appear in primetime. The Buffalo Bills are scheduled to open their regular season against the Detroit Lions at Highmark Stadium. The anticipation surrounding the “Bills Mafia” and the debut of the $2.2 billion stadium could notably boost prediction market totals. Additionally, Monday Night Football will feature a game between the New York Giants and the Los Angeles Rams, who are favored to win the Super Bowl. Ahead of the game, Kalshi indicated that the Rams had a 75% probability of defeating the Giants.
"It’s going to be a great test for our team," remarked Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart on Wednesday.
