The Group of Copenhagen has identified seven instances of suspicious betting activity during the World Cup, including Folarin Balogun's contentious red card, a draw between Spain and Cape Verde, and a VAR decision concerning a separate Spain match. Despite these findings, FIFA asserted there was no evidence of suspicious betting or match manipulation.
Comprising an independent international network focused on identifying and preventing sports manipulation, the Group of Copenhagen has not disclosed the entirety of its report. However, the Council of Europe confirmed that 15 matches from the World Cup were subjected to heightened scrutiny, with seven falling into a "slightly increased alert" category. Notable incidents included:
– Themba Zwane's red card during South Africa's match against Mexico.
– A significant $4.8 million wager placed on Spain to not defeat Cape Verde via Polymarket.
– A lengthy three-and-a-half-minute interruption by the VAR team, resulting in the disallowance of a goal by Spain's Ferran Torres in their 4-0 victory over Saudi Arabia.
– A Polymarket betting market targeting whether Balogun would compete against Belgium.
Suspicion also surrounds Balogun's scenario. After receiving a red card against Bosnia and Herzegovina, he was expected to absent himself from the match against Belgium. However, FIFA made an unusual decision to lift his suspension, a move reportedly spurred by intervention from Donald Trump, who urged FIFA President Gianni Infantino to reconsider.
On July 2, the day of Balogun's red card, Polymarket opened a betting market titled "Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?" Initially, the probability of his participation was less than 1%, but this figure soared to 97.6% upon FIFA's decision. Nearly $500,000 exchanged hands on this market.
The Group of Copenhagen has sought a written response from FIFA concerning the Balogun incident. This organization acts under the Macolin Convention, an international treaty aimed at consolidating global efforts against sports corruption. While its membership is predominantly European, the UK is currently contemplating complete ratification of the convention.
Other matches in the final group stage also drew scrutiny. The expanded format meant teams could advance with a draw. In the Australia versus Paraguay match, both teams progressed after a 0-0 stalemate, a probability that had surged beforehand. Polymarket users capitalized significantly by backing the draw in this encounter and in the Japan versus Sweden match.
Contrary to the accusations from the Group of Copenhagen, FIFA maintains there’s been no suspicious betting during the tournament. The FIFA Integrity Task Force stated, "Based on the information collected and analysed throughout the competition, the Task Force identified no suspicious betting activity or indications of match manipulation in connection with any fixture." Liam Rich, FIFA's Senior Integrity Manager, praised the Task Force's role in providing a solid framework for intelligence sharing and addressing potential issues throughout the World Cup.
While FIFA did not address the Group of Copenhagen's findings directly, it remains under scrutiny. Additionally, allegations regarding Ivory Coast player Elye Wahi surfaced during the tournament; he faced investigation for spot-fixing. Despite initial visa application complications linked to his arrest before the tournament, he ultimately traveled with his team to play against Germany. Wahi faces accusations of intentionally collecting yellow cards while with his club, Nice, in France.
