As the midterm elections loom large, many political figures across the United States are calling Tuesday’s voting one of the most significant in recent history.
In the lead-up to Election Night, forecasts from the largest prediction-market platforms indicated that the Democratic Party had a strong chance of regaining control of the Senate. At 9 AM ET, Kalshi reported a 75% probability for a Democratic sweep of both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The odds for a scenario where Democrats win the House while Republicans take the Senate stood at just 20%. The contract on Kalshi had garnered over $107.8 million in notional volume.
This sentiment was mirrored on two other major platforms, Polymarket and DraftKings Predictions. Polymarket’s US site showed traders expecting a 77% likelihood of a Democratic victory in the Senate, while its offshore site slightly raised those expectations to 78%. Meanwhile, DraftKings Predictions traders assigned a 76% chance for Democrats to secure at least 51 seats necessary for Senate control, with Republican victory odds around 27%. Predictions indicated that Democrats were also highly favored to reclaim the House, with probabilities exceeding 90% in major markets.
Recent discussions at the Predict 2026 and NEXTPredict conferences highlighted the surging interest in election trading contracts. During the latter event, Chuck Todd, former moderator of Meet The Press, cautioned that inexperienced retail traders might face losses on Election Night if they fail to stay updated with exit polls in real time.
Another topic of interest was the rise of “multi-step conditional contracts,” which require a specific event or condition to be met before they become valid. For the Election Night, Polymarket is offering such contracts that hinge on a Democratic sweep. One notable option allows traders to speculate on whether a Democratic candidate will win the 2028 US Presidential Election if the party accomplishes a sweep in Congress, with current odds at 73% as of Tuesday morning.
Traders are also placing bets on various economic and geopolitical issues, predicting a 35% chance of a US recession by the end of 2027 and a mere 3% likelihood that a US-Iran ceasefire will be sustained through that year.
Close races are anticipated in four Midwest states—Michigan, Ohio, Kansas, and Iowa—suggesting that certainty regarding Senate control contracts may not be established by Wednesday morning.
Overall, the volume of trading in US prediction markets has seen a dramatic spike compared to the midterms two years ago, with total notional volume surpassing $1.48 billion by Tuesday morning across all platforms.
