Every major football tournament brings its share of concerns. A decade ago, as the World Cup or European Championship approached, regulators primarily focused their messaging on gambling-related harm, the risks of excessive advertising, and the potential for vulnerable consumers to become overwhelmed by a month-long betting frenzy.
This summer, the emphasis is notably different.
In anticipation of the FIFA World Cup, regulators and industry bodies across Europe have directed their warnings toward illegal gambling operators. In France, the regulator l'Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) has pointed out the dangers associated with prediction markets, illegal affiliates, and influencers. The Dutch regulator, Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), has increased scrutiny on both legal and illegal advertising. In Britain, there is a heavy focus on black market activity and the risks that unlicensed operators might use the tournament as an opportunity to recruit new customers.
At first glance, this shift seems significant. Has the industry moved beyond concerns for player protection within the regulated market? Are regulators now convinced that unlicensed operations present a greater danger than their legal counterparts?
Regulators and experts suggest a more nuanced answer. The rising attention on illegal gambling does not signal a departure from player protection but rather underscores a belief that consumer safeguards and channelisation are fundamentally linked.
To put it simply, regulators are beginning to understand that protections are effective only if consumers utilize regulated services.
Ismail Vali, president of Gaming Compliance International (GCI), explains that the industry’s perception of risk has evolved. "Player protection remains critically important, and that has not changed. What has changed is the industry’s understanding of where many of the risks now exist."
Historically, public discourse focused more on licensed operators due to the visibility regulators had in that area. There was data to analyze, measurable interventions, and specific compliance obligations to enforce. Therefore, the regulated sector appeared as the main source of potential harm.
Now, however, regulators are increasingly turning their attention to what Vali describes as the “systemic” threat posed by unlicensed operators. "The regulated sector is the visible risk. Illegal gambling is increasingly the structural risk to marketplace outcomes."
Mechanisms such as self-exclusion systems, affordability checks, responsible gambling tools, and dispute-resolution methods all hinge on one critical condition: consumers need to choose regulated operators.
Vali points out a critical aspect: "A self-exclusion scheme only protects a consumer if that consumer does not immediately migrate to an illegal operator."
This perspective has significant implications. For a long time, gambling policy primarily focused on regulating licensed businesses. Lately, regulators have shifted their focus to a different inquiry—not only whether operators comply with the rules but whether consumers are remaining within the regulated market.
“The purpose of regulation is not to exclusively regulate regulated operators,” Vali asserts. “The purpose of regulation is to regulate the marketplace.”
A notable example of this evolution can be seen in the Netherlands. The Dutch government has recently announced plans to bolster consumer protections, including stricter restrictions on gambling activities and advertising, while also seeking more authority for KSA to combat illegal gambling.
For some, these goals may seem conflicting, as stricter regulations could make licensed products less appealing and push consumers toward unregulated options. However, KSA views the relationship differently, stating, "The illegal and legal market are communicating vessels. When strengthening player protections, it is likely some players will drift away from the legal to the illegal offering. To contain this, it is necessary to battle the illegal market even harder and more effectively."
This reasoning is increasingly influencing regulatory thought across Europe. Regulators now see consumer protection and black market enforcement as complementary rather than competing priorities.
While KSA maintains that "player protection is our number one priority," it emphasizes that "on the black market, player protection is far worse. Therefore, when strengthening player protections, we also need to battle the illegal market even harder."
The World Cup intensifies this concern. Historically, KSA has seen a surge in sports betting during tournaments, especially among younger adults who may be gambling for the first time. "Our main concern is that vulnerable groups, such as 18-24 year olds, will start betting during this period," KSA reports.
To address this, KSA has launched awareness campaigns and increased oversight of advertising from both licensed and unlicensed operators. This Dutch approach illustrates that regulators increasingly view channelisation as an integral aspect of consumer protection.
A similar strategy is evident in France, where ANJ maintains that the focus on illegal gambling is not a recent development. France has long prioritized channelisation, achieving a channelisation rate of around 85% by employing website-blocking and payment-blocking measures. "We don’t see a specific emergence of black market concerns in France," ANJ states. "The fight against the illegal offer has always been a priority since the beginning of gambling regulation in France."
Nonetheless, ANJ affirms that player protection remains central to its World Cup strategy. The regulator is keeping a close watch on marketing expenditures, collaborating with operators to minimize promotional activities during the tournament, and has initiated a responsible gambling campaign named “Zone à risques.”
"In France, our motto is that gambling must be recreational," ANJ explains. Legal operators are allowed to create attractive offerings, as long as these ensure that players treat gambling as a recreational activity.
ANJ has also acknowledged that technological progress has impacted the regulatory landscape. "It is true that regulators are, at the same time, increasingly warning of the dangers of illegal gambling," it notes, referencing the role of illegal affiliates and the emergence of new gaming types like prediction markets.
These changes have made accessing unlicensed gambling easier and have blurred the lines between legal and illegal offerings. Consequently, ANJ argues that the fight against the black market must coincide with heightened obligations for legal operators to better identify and assist problem gamblers.
Industry observers suggest that another factor contributing to the changing dialogue is that regulated operators have improved considerably in their consumer protection efforts. Victoria Reed, chief executive of Better Change, believes the sector's capabilities have markedly advanced compared to previous tournaments. "This World Cup will see more focus on consumer safety than ever before due to the growing population of safer gambling professionals in the industry as well as advancements in player tracking technology,” she notes. “Player protection has become business as usual."
This does not imply that the issue has vanished; rather, it has been incorporated into the standard operations of licensed gambling businesses. According to Reed, "Player protection is more prominent than it ever has been before. There are thousands of people employed in the regulated industry focused on player safety 24/7."
The escalating presence of the black market highlights a different concern. Illegal platforms typically lack any genuine consumer safeguards. "There is no age verification, no safer gambling interactions or controls, no self-exclusion scheme," Reed explains. "In fact, the illegal market targets those who have excluded from regulated sites."
Thus, the increased emphasis on illegal gambling reflects an extension of responsible gambling principles rather than a retreat from them.
In the UK, regulators maintain a more cautious stance. The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) has expressed concerns that unlicensed operators might exploit the World Cup for customer acquisition, although the UK regulator has not endorsed any suggestion of a significant shift in consumer behavior. Early indicators appear stable. According to a Commission spokesperson, "We won’t fully see any impact on trends until early July, but looking at the most recent data set, things have looked fairly stable in the lead-up to the World Cup."
Both enforcement against illegal gambling and consumer protection within the licensed market remain priorities for the regulator. The spokesperson noted that additional funding aimed at tackling illegal gambling is intended to complement wider oversight responsibilities.
The Commission adds that its policy design seeks to be proportionate, weighing the costs and benefits of its regulatory framework. While acknowledging the growing focus on illegal gambling, the Commission challenges claims of rapid growth, stating that its data does not currently support the perspective of sustained engagement with the illegal market.
For the Commission, the central challenge has not changed: how to maintain a regulatory balance that ensures gambling is "fair, safe, and crime-free" while hindering illegal operators from gaining momentum.
Research by GCI, published this month, indicates that illegal gambling is becoming increasingly sophisticated and embedded within digital ecosystems. The firm estimates that unregulated online gambling will generate approximately $5.9 trillion in wagering value globally during 2025, with unregulated operators accounting for 78% of global online gambling gross gaming revenue. However, this data remains debated within the industry, and its accuracy depends on the methodology used.
More revealing than the broad figures, however, is the framework behind them. Illegal operators are no longer exclusively using obscure offshore websites; instead, they are acquiring customers through search engines, affiliates, messaging platforms, social media, streaming services, mobile applications, and increasingly refined digital marketing channels.
Vali contends that these changes have fundamentally transformed gambling regulation. "Today, illegal operators can acquire, target, and retain customers through search, social media, affiliates, messaging platforms, streaming services, AI-driven marketing, and crypto-enabled ecosystems that simply did not exist at the same scale a decade ago."
This evolution helps elucidate why regulators now discuss ecosystems instead of focusing solely on operators. The competition has shifted from licensed firms versus regulators to a broader contest between regulated and unregulated pathways vying for the same customers in the same digital realm.
Ultimately, the World Cup may be remembered not for an explosion in illegal gambling but for its role in showcasing regulators' evolving thinking. Five years ago, the primary concern among policymakers was whether licensed operators were doing enough to protect consumers.
Presently, an additional question has emerged: can consumer protection be effective if consumers exit the regulated market entirely? The insights coming from France, the Netherlands, and Britain indicate that player protection remains as vital as ever. What has changed is the recognition that channelisation and consumer protection are increasingly intertwined.
Regulators' future challenges will extend beyond merely creating new rules or tighter safeguards. They will need to assess whether their interventions yield improved outcomes in the marketplace. As Vali succinctly puts it, success should not be evaluated based solely on how effectively licensed operators are regulated. Instead, he argues, it should hinge on whether "the marketplace itself is becoming safer, more accountable, and more channelised into the regulated sector over time." For Europe's regulators, this may emerge as the defining gambling policy question of the next decade.
