Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin return with a data-focused episode as the World Cup gets underway. They discuss H2 Gambling Capital's betting forecasts for the tournament, the UAE's new regulatory CEO, and insights into Finland's opening market numbers.
H2 Gambling Capital estimates that $60 billion will be wagered globally through legal sportsbooks during this year's World Cup, marking a 71% increase compared to the 2022 tournament. Among the host nations, the U.S. leads with $2.9 billion in expected wagers, closely followed by Mexico at $2.5 billion. Listeners can tune in for H2's projections for Brazil, a nation with a deep love for football.
Ed emphasizes that operators should view the World Cup as an opportunity to acquire new customers, rather than focusing solely on revenue. The tournament features 104 matches, an increase from 64 in 2022, creating uncertainty around margins due to unpredictable outcomes.
In the UAE, Ciarán Carruthers has been appointed as the new CEO of the General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority (GCGRA), taking over from Kevin Mullally, who departed in November of last year. Carruthers has extensive experience in Asian gaming from his roles at Galaxy, Sands China, and Wynn Macau. Most recently, he led Crown Resorts through its anti-money laundering and responsible gambling remediation in Australia. While Robin finds this appointment promising for industry growth, Ed expresses skepticism, believing that the UAE's online market will hold little relevance for most operators.
Turning to Finland, the number of companies applying for licenses ahead of the market launch is deemed excessively high by Harrison and Birkin. H2 estimates that the licensed online gambling market in Finland could grow from its current $275 million to between $1.4 billion and $1.5 billion by 2028. However, Ed raises concerns over the impact of ‘bad actor’ provisions on operators currently engaging with the market.
He ends with a critical remark on the European Commission's levy proposal, questioning the influence of AI-derived data on policy-making.
