On Tuesday, Nevada voters will cast their ballots in the gubernatorial race between the incumbent Republican Joe Lombardo and Democratic challenger Aaron Ford, the state's attorney general. Regardless of the outcome, the eyes of the gaming industry will be closely trained on the results.
The competition to helm the largest gaming market in the United States is heating up, and the latest trends in polling and prediction markets are showing a divergence as the election nears. Since the start of October, Aaron Ford's position has strengthened, with traders on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket pushing his odds of winning to over 75%. This marks a significant turn from August and September, when Lombardo was consistently viewed as the frontrunner.
Polling sources are revealing tighter margins. A Friday report from MS NOW shows Ford with a narrow lead at 45% to Lombardo's 44%. Another poll, conducted by Noble Predictive Insights on October 6, indicated Lombardo trailing slightly at 42% against Ford's 40%. Events in recent elections have suggested that both polling methods can misrepresent the final outcomes; traditional polls did not predict Donald Trump's 2024 victory, nor did prediction markets foresee Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s surprising victory in Brazil this month.
Historically, Nevada has been led by Republican governors. From 1998 to 2018, Kenny Guinn, Jim Gibbons, and Brian Sandoval served uninterrupted until Democrat Steve Sisolak broke that streak. Sisolak's administration dealt with the unprecedented closure of state casinos for 78 days during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 before Lombardo, a former Clark County sheriff, defeated him in the 2022 election.
Lombardo has garnered substantial financial support from the gaming sector, holding a considerable funding advantage as the campaign progresses. From January 1 to September 30, he received $6.1 million in direct contributions and spent $12.4 million. In comparison, Ford’s campaign raised $4.9 million and spent $5.2 million, according to the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office. Indirect contributions to Lombardo include over $10 million received by a political action committee, Nevada Way PAC, primarily funded by gaming affiliates.
Key contributions to Lombardo include:
– $3 million from Station Casinos
– $1 million each from Frank and Lorenzo Fertitta, chairman and vice chairman of Station Casinos
– $1 million from Las Vegas Sands
– $350,000 from South Point Hotel and Casino
– $200,000 from Anthony Marnell III, CEO of Marnell Companies
– $200,000 from Boyd Gaming
– $200,000 from the Venetian Las Vegas
– $170,000 from Caesars Entertainment
– $160,000 from Wynn Resorts
– $150,000 from MGM Resorts
– $100,000 from Fontainebleau Las Vegas
– $25,000 from El Cortez Hotel and Casino
– $25,000 from Golden Entertainment
– $20,000 from Light & Wonder.
Recognized as pro-business, Lombardo has motivated state gaming regulators to remove several outdated regulations. His candidacy is bolstered by an endorsement from Trump, who rallied with Lombardo in Las Vegas in August, calling for a definitive victory. At that rally, Lombardo emphasized the necessity of "taking care" of the gaming billionaires that provide jobs, which Ford’s campaign criticized, especially amid rising costs tied to Trump’s policies. Currently, Nevada has the third-highest gas prices in the country, as reported by AAA. In recent weeks, Lombardo has sought to appeal to independents by distancing himself from Trump.
On the other hand, Ford is backed by labor unions, notably the Culinary Union Local 226, which is Nevada’s most powerful hospitality labor group. The union endorsed Ford in September after he supported their unionization efforts at Station’s Red Rock Casino. In a statement on Tuesday, Ford affirmed his solidarity with the Red Rock employees.
Ford's affiliated PAC, A More Affordable Nevada, has raised $11 million, including $400,000 from Illinois Governor Jay Pritzker. Approximately $3 million of this came from the Forward Nevada PAC, which was funded by various labor organizations and other contributors:
– $1 million from the American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees
– $400,000 from hedge fund manager Aaron Sosnick
– $400,000 from attorney John Morgan of Morgan & Morgan
– $250,000 from the Service Employees International Union
– $200,000 from the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
– $100,000 from the International Union of Operating Engineers.
From a gaming standpoint, Ford has actively opposed prediction markets, and Nevada has taken a strong stance against these platforms. The state has implemented a ban on trading sports, entertainment, and election-related contracts, winning a recent ruling from the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in August. Although the majority of gaming funding flows to Lombardo, Ford's possible victory could safeguard Nevada's gaming industry from concerns about these platforms encroaching on regulations.
"Nevada has built the gold standard for gaming regulation, and we will not allow companies to circumvent those protections or operate outside the law," Ford stated following the Ninth Circuit ruling. "Our office is proud to have defended Nevada’s authority, and we will continue working to protect Nevadans and the integrity of our gaming industry."
