As Nevada voters head to the polls on Tuesday, the focus is on the gubernatorial race between incumbent Republican Joe Lombardo and Democratic challenger Aaron Ford, the current state attorney general. The gaming industry in Nevada is particularly invested in the outcome, given that it represents the largest gaming market in the United States.
Polling data shows a shift as election day nears. Prediction markets have seen Ford's odds rise to over 75% on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, a notable change from Lombardo's earlier position as the frontrunner through much of the late summer. Contrastingly, traditional polling, such as a recent MS NOW poll, indicates a much tighter contest, with Ford ahead by a narrow margin of 45%-44%. Another poll released by Noble Predictive Insights on October 6 showed Lombardo leading with 42%-40%. Past election results suggest these sources may not always accurately reflect voter outcomes, as seen in the unexpected win of Donald Trump in 2024 and the surprise reelection of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil.
Historically, Nevada has leaned Republican with governors like Kenny Guinn, Jim Gibbons, and Brian Sandoval serving for two decades until Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, took office in 2018. Sisolak managed the state's response to the Covid-19 pandemic, which included the closure of casinos for an unprecedented 78 days. Lombardo, a former Clark County sheriff, won the election against Sisolak in 2022. Now, he faces Ford, who has been attorney general since 2019 and is also a former teacher and state lawmaker.
In terms of funding, Lombardo has the clear advantage, receiving $6.1 million in contributions between January and September, while spending $12.4 million in that time. Ford's contributions were lower, totaling $4.9 million, with $5.2 million spent. Furthermore, gaming donors have heavily backed Lombardo, with significant amounts funneled into the Nevada Way PAC, which has received over $10 million from contributors including $3 million from Station Casinos and multiple donations of $1 million from notable figures like Frank and Lorenzo Fertitta of Station Casinos and Las Vegas Sands.
Lombardo, seen as a pro-business candidate, has worked to remove outdated gaming regulations, earning favor from Trump's endorsement at a rally in Las Vegas where he emphasized the need to support Nevada's gaming moguls. However, as the state grapples with soaring gas prices, Lombardo has tried to pivot away from Trump to appeal to independent voters.
On the other side, Ford has secured backing from labor unions, especially Culinary Union Local 226, Nevada's key hospitality labor group, which endorsed him in September. This union has also worked on efforts to unionize the Red Rock Casino. In a statement, Ford expressed his solidarity with the workers during this campaign.
Ford's affiliated PAC, A More Affordable Nevada, has garnered $11 million, partially from significant contributions from notable individuals and unions. A substantial proportion of funds for Ford's campaign also comes from the Forward Nevada PAC, which has seen backing from various labor organizations.
While Lombardo has attracted the bulk of gaming-related funding, Ford’s campaign addresses issues surrounding gaming regulation. Ford has positioned his office as a defender against prediction markets, which have faced stringent regulations in Nevada; a recent Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruling reaffirmed the state’s stance on banning sports, entertainment, and election contracts from trading.
In his post-ruling statement, Ford affirmed, "Nevada has built the gold standard for gaming regulation, and we will not allow companies to circumvent those protections or operate outside the law. Our office is proud to have defended Nevada’s authority, and we will continue working to protect Nevadans and the integrity of our gaming industry."
