The Dutch government has announced a significant crackdown on online gambling advertisements, effectively proposing a near-total ban on these promotions with only limited exceptions. In an effort led by Claudia van Bruggen, the State Secretary for Legal Protection, this initiative aims to eliminate sign-up bonuses like free bets, enforce a comprehensive deposit limit across operators, enhance the CRUKS self-exclusion register, and intensify regulation against illegal gambling activities.
"I am particularly concerned that more and more individuals, especially young people, are engaging in online gambling and encountering serious problems as a result," van Bruggen stated when revealing the measures back in June. "It is high time to reverse this trend."
This proposed ban is more than just a fresh set of rules; it indicates a shift in strategy as the Netherlands has been gradually tightening its gambling regulations. Since the market’s opening in 2021, measures have included barring celebrity endorsements in gambling promotions, banning untargeted advertisements from July 2023, and eliminating sports sponsorships starting July 2025. Officials seem to agree that previous efforts haven't sufficiently reduced public exposure to gambling.
Has the original goal of "channelisation," which aimed to guide consumers toward licensed operators, been abandoned? Justin Franssen, a partner at the Amsterdam gaming law firm Franssen Tolboom, thinks so. He observes, "Yes, I think it has—and actually, not even that quietly," referencing comments from former Secretary of State Teun Struycken. "The new mantra is the prevention of gambling harm." The emphasis has shifted from directing consumers to regulated sites to protecting players and potential players from gambling-related issues.
The timing of this policy change is notable, especially given the backdrop of a declining legal market share. The Netherlands' gambling regulator, the KSA, has reported that the legal market's share of gross gaming revenue had dipped to about 49% by the beginning of 2025. Reports from trade organizations indicate the black market now captures approximately 25% of all gambling activity in the country. Licensed operators have cited a gaming tax of 37.8% of gross gaming revenue and the restrictions on advertising as factors detrimentally affecting their competitiveness.
Franssen questions the logic behind a total advertising ban, asking, "What evidence suggests a total ban will succeed where partial ones failed?" He argues, "It’s a very simple answer, there is no evidence." He highlights that the KSA has similarly raised concerns regarding such a comprehensive ban and provided advice against it.
Currently, a significant portion of gambling advertisements on Dutch social media are already illegal. "I would estimate that around 95% of those advertisements come from the black market," Franssen adds.
In June, the trade body VNLOK initiated legal action against Meta and lodged a complaint with the European Commission regarding the proliferation of illegal gambling ads. In the final quarter of 2025, VNLOK identified over 70,000 gambling ads on Meta's platforms, with more than 95% coming from unlicensed operators. Despite numerous KSA complaints to Meta, offending ads tend to remain active for about a day and a half before reappearing under different names. VNLOK estimates that the illegal gambling market in the Netherlands now exceeds €1 billion annually, matching the size of the regulated market.
Franssen argues that banning licensed operators will ultimately benefit illegal businesses. "What you ultimately achieve with a total ban is handing the entire stage to illegal operators while preventing licensed operators from informing consumers that a legal, regulated, and protected alternative exists. In my view, it’s one of the worst policy ideas I’ve seen in many years."
Denmark, for example, pursued a different path, having rejected a blanket ban on gambling ads in favor of targeted restrictions. Last October, Denmark implemented measures including a whistle-to-whistle ban on ads around live sports, restrictions near transportation and schools, a prohibition on marketing to under-25s, and the elimination of free-bet offers to be phased in by January 2027. Nevertheless, the Danish market has encountered issues as well, with Morten Rønde, outgoing director of the Danish online gambling association Spillebranchen, noting the unlicensed market has grown significantly, dropping the channelisation rate from 90% to 70% in three years due to advertising restrictions.
In Italy, where a near-total ban on gambling advertising has been in effect since the Dignity Decree of 2018, the results have not been favorable either. Quirino Mancini of WH Partners Italy criticizes this regulatory approach as short-sighted, asserting that the illegal gambling market in Italy remains robust, valued at an estimated €22 billion, while the impact on formal market channelisation has been minimal.
Interestingly, the Dutch government's existing policies already underline a potential path forward, as evidenced by the deposit limits instituted in 2024 under the previous secretary. These limits successfully reduced the number of players exceeding their monthly allowance from 9.7% to 2.2%, while average monthly losses decreased by 31%.
Franssen acknowledges the protective intent of the proposals, stating, "The underlying idea is not necessarily bad. On the contrary, the objective is player protection, and that should absolutely be applauded." However, he cautions that the combination of advertising bans, tax increases, and additional requirements has already shifted gross gaming revenue from the licensed market to the black market, a trend that the regulator is aware of. Increasing restrictions, according to Franssen, could push more players toward illegal options.
The government now seeks to intensify enforcement efforts against illegal operators with new tools for the KSA, but Franssen remains skeptical. "The black market is like quicksilver – it always finds a way around enforcement measures," he explains. The black market can evade fines and circumvent restrictions imposed on payments and advertising. While a total ban will require primary legislation, a process that may last up to two years, this period could deepen the existing challenges, such as the growing illegal market and stagnant channelisation rates.
When asked if the Dutch strategy risks overwhelming the regulated market, Mancini does not hesitate: "Absolutely so. This is quite a safe bet." Rønde, observing from Denmark, shares a grim perspective, commenting, "Everything indicates that the Dutch policymakers have already gone too far. When surveys show that the channelisation rate is down to 50%, it tells me that the market is already not working. However, some stakeholders seem ready to bury the hope of a viable gambling market."
Ultimately, the Dutch authorities might find that as the licensed market quiets, the discussion surrounding gambling will not cease; it will simply shift to environments beyond regulatory oversight.
